US NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 48.8 (FCST: 48.9); OCT 48.5

MNI:Largest Canada New Home Price Dip Since `09 Led By Toronto

CANADIAN OCT FLASH RETAIL SALES +0.7%, 4TH STRAIGHT INCREASE

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, November 22

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY345.9 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI BRIEF: Fed Should Explore Central Clearing At SRF-Hammack

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Gilt Syndi; IT, EU Due Monday

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL NOV INDEX 71.8

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

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Markets Roundup

US TSYS
  • A moderate risk-on tone continues (though stocks trimming gains in over the last hour) as markets latched onto this morning's lower than expected ADP private employment vs. ISM Services PMI that pointed to slower albeit strong growth.
  • While there isn't a strong correlation, lower private jobs gain ahead Friday's NFP is a potential setup for softer policy expectations that have been weighing on rates and stocks the last four weeks.
  • Initially following EGBs, Treasury futures continue to reject overnight cycle lows (TYZ3 106-03.5, 10Y yield 4.8799% high) then extended the rally after ADP Employment Change comes in much lower than expected +81k vs.150k est, +177k prior.
  • Following mixed EU servicer PMI overnight, US services PMI was 50.1 (vs 50.2 flash; 50.5 prior), the composite print was 50.2 (vs 50.1 flash; 50.2 prior). "September data indicated a continued decline in new business at service sector firms"…"lower new orders were reportedly linked to weak domestic and foreign client demand".
  • Dec'23 10Y futures topped 107-00 to 107-05 high in the first half, while yield slipped to 4.7246% low. Technical resistance focus on 107-14 (High Oct 3).
  • Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, Trade Balance, and various Fed speakers: Cleveland Fed Mester, MN Fed Kashkari, Richmond Fed Barkin, SF Fed Daly and Fed Vice Chair Barr.
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