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Markets Roundup: Treasury Yields Bounce Ahead Fed Blackout

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures drifting near session lows after a higher open Friday. Quiet second half trade after US rates mirrored moves in EGBs as Bunds and Gilts also reversed gains into the European close.
  • Early volatility FI markets saw fast two-way trade after Import Prices fell 0.2% vs. -0.1 est, while Export Prices receded -0.9% vs. -0.1% est. Bonds lead a reversal to lower levels after initially trading higher.
  • Treasury futures extend lows after preliminary July University of Michigan survey came out stronger than expected across the board: 1Y inflation surprisingly increased to 3.4% (cons 3.1) after 3.3%; 5-10Y inflation increased a tenth to 3.1% (3.0), back at the top end of the 2.9-3.1% range seen since Aug’21 and one tenth off a high since 2011; sentiment also increased to 72.6 (cons 65.6) from 64.4.
  • Curves held mostly flatter, with the exception of 3M10Y +4.050 at -159.157 after flattening sharply Thu. Tsy 2s10s bear flattened over 6bp to -93.643, after climbing to -82.676 high in the prior session.
  • Year end rate hike projections firmed up on the heavy short end selling, November cumulative of 32.3bp (vs. 27.2 low Thu) at 5.399%, December cumulative 26.3bp (vs. 19.9bp Thu) at 5.339%. Fed terminal holding at 5.395% in Nov'23.
  • Reminder, the Federal Reserve enters policy blackout at midnight tonight, runs through July 27, the day after the next rate announcement.
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