MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 6 May, 2024

• Austria, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
• The syndication schedule may pick up again with France or the ESM the most likely candidates to hold transactions in our view.
• We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E23.7bln (excluding retail operations), down from this week’s E33.1bln.
• The week ahead sees redemptions of E1.9bln from a formerly 3-year Italian USD bond while coupon payments for the week are just E0.2bln.
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E21.7bln versus negative E1.8bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a round up of Q2 issuance plans, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240506.pdf

Supply Next Week

• Austria will kick off issuance for the week on Tuesday. In line with recent auctions, the size will be E2.01bln across two RAGBs with the on-the-run 10-year 2.90% Feb-34 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A39UW5) on offer alongside the the 0.70% Apr-71 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A2QQB6).
• Portugal will come to the market on Wednesday to sell a combined E1.0-1.25bln of the following OTs at its auction next Wednesday (May 8 ): the 10-year on-the-run 2.875% Oct-34 OT (ISIN: PTOTESOE0021) and the 15-year on-the-run 3.50% Jun-38 OT (ISIN: PTOTEZOE0014).
• Spain will hold a Bono/Olbi/ObliEi auction on Thursday 9 May. As we expected, we will see a reopening of the on-the-run 5-year 3.50% May-29 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M51). Also on offer will be the 0.70% Apr-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K20), the on-the-run 15-year 3.90% Jul-39 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L60) and the 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012C12). The auction sizes will be confirmed on Monday but we expect E5.5-6.5bln for the nominals and E250-750mln for the linker.
• Ireland will then come to the market to hold its only scheduled auction of the quarter. We look for a E1.0bln auction size split between two IGBs, with the on-the-run 10-year 2.60% Oct-34 IGB (ISIN: IE000LQ7YWY4) likely to be on offer. Details will be confirmed on Tuesday.
• Italy will hold a 3/7/15+ year BTP auction on Friday. It is possible that we would see both 3/7-year new issues, but our base case is that we will see a reopening of the 3-year 2.95% Feb-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005580045) alongside the launch of a new 7-year BTP maturing 15 July 2031. We don’t have a strong conviction on which 15-50-year BTP(s) will be on offer alongside this. Details are due to be announced on Tuesday.
• The week ahead will also see Italy hold a retail-only BTP Valore transaction with a 6-year maturity (ISIN: IT0005594491). This will be the second BTP Valore transaction of 2024, following the E18.3bln raised in March for another 6-year issue (higher than the E18.2bln in June 2023 for a 4-year issue and E17.2bln in October 2023 for a 5-year issue).