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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 8 April, 2024

  • The EU, Austria, Germany, Italy and potentially Portugal are all due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E27.0bln, a little lower than the E29.1bln this week.
  • In terms of syndications we see Finland, Greece, Italy and Spain as the most likely candidates this week. However, any syndications are likely to be on Tuesday or Wednesday so that they are not ongoing through the ECB meeting and we would be surprised to see more than 1-2 syndicated deals this week.
  • The week ahead sees redemptions of E8.0bln from a maturing BTP Italia. There is also E0.5bln of coupon payments.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E18.5bln, versus negative E1.9bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a round up of Q2 issuance plans, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here:

EZ240408.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • The EU will look to kick off issuance for the week on Monday with an auction of on-the-run 7/10-year EU-bonds on offer for up to E2.5bln each: the 3.125% Dec-30 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3LNF05) and the 3.00% Dec-34 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4ES4).
  • On Tuesday, Austria will come to the market to hold an RAGB auction with another auction size of E2.0125bln (we look for E1.75bln to be allotted). On offer will be the 0.50% Feb-29 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A269M8) and the 2.90% Feb-34 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A39UW5).
  • Also on Tuesday, Germany wlll come to the market to sell E4bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25026).
  • On Wednesday, Germany will look to sell E2.5bln of the new May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009). The Bund will have a maturity of 17 years on issue and will be on offer again at the 29 May auction for 15-year Bunds.
  • Also Wednesday, Portugal will hold an auction with the following OTs on offer for a combined E1.25-1.50bln: the off-the-run 10-year 2.25% Apr-34 OT (ISIN: PTOTEWOE0017), the on-the-run 15-year 3.50% Jun-38 OT (ISIN: PTOTEZOE0014) and the off-the-run 20-year 4.10% Feb-45 OT (ISIN: PTOTEBOE0020)
  • On Thursday, Italy will come to the market to hold a 3/7/15+ year BTP auction with details due to be announced on Monday. We expect a reopening of the 2.95% Feb-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005580045) alongside the 3.50% Feb-31 BTP (ISIN: IT0005580094). We have less conviction regarding the 15+ year BTP that will be on offer but pencil in a reopening of the 30-year 4.50% Oct-53 BTP (ISIN: IT0005534141).

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