MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Jan 9

• The EU, Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Spain and Italy are all due to hold auction next week while we also expect syndications from the EFSF (RFP already out), Belgium and Italy.
• We pencil in gross nominal issuance at first round operations of E47.1bln for these deals.
• The upcoming week will see no redemptions and only negligible coupon payments. We therefore look for net flows of E47.1bln in the week ahead, up from E24.8bln this week.

EZ230109.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• The EFSF has sent an RFP and we would expect a syndication next week, probably on Tuesday. A 30-year bond has been launched in each of the last three years in January (as part of a dual-tranche transaction the past two years). We pencil in another dual-tranche syndication of E5.0-5.5bln. We have less conviction on what the other bond is likely to be.
• In the upcoming week we also look for syndications from Belgium (likely new 10-year OLO for E5-6bln) and Italy. There is also a chance for a Greek or French syndication but we think that Spain will hold off until the W/C 23 January to avoid auction weeks.
• The EU will kick off next week’s auctions with up to E3bln of the 0.80% Jul-25 EU NGEU (ISIN: EU000A3K4DJ5) and up to E2bln of the 0.45% Jul-41 EU NGEU (ISIN: EU000A3KT6B1) on offer. This auction marks another step up in auction size to a combined E5bln. Until June 2022 EU-bond auctions had generally been single line auctions for E2.5bln but from August 2022 the size increased to up to E4bln, generally in a dual single format.
• On Tuesday, the Netherlands will look to sell E2.5-3.5bln of the 3-year 0% Jan-26 DSL (ISIN: NL0015000QL2).
• Also Tuesday, Austria will sell a combined E1.15bln of the 3.5-year 2.00% Jul-26 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A308C5) and the 25-year 1.50% Feb-47 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A1K9F1).
• Tuesday will see the first linker auction of the year with Germany offering E500mln of the 0.10% Apr-33 ILB (ISIN: DE0001030583) on offer.
• On Wednesday, Germany will look to launch its new Feb-33 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z007) for E5bln. The coupon is still to be announced but is likely to exceed 2% for the first time in a decade.
• On Thursday, Spain will look to launch its new 3-year 2.80% May-26 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012L29). Also on offer will be the 7-year 0.80% Jul-29 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K53), the 23-year 2.90% Oct-46 Obli (ISIN: ES00000128C6) and the 10-year 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012C12).
• Finally on Thursday, Italy is due to hold its mid-month auction. We look for reopenings of the 3-year 3.50% Jan-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005514473) and the 7-year 3.85% Dec-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005519787). If Italy announces a syndication mandate on Monday there is a chance that the 15-50-year auction is skipped in the upcoming week.
• Spain is also likely to release its 2023 funding plans next week.