May CPI Inflation Forecast To Rise, RBA’s Hauser Speaks Thursday

The focus of this week is likely to be on Wednesday’s May CPI data and RBA Deputy Governor Hauser’s speech Thursday. There are some survey data too.

• The May CPI is expected to post an increase of 3.8% y/y up from 3.6% the previous month. Forecasts range from 3.5% to 4.0% with most around 3.7-3.8%. April did not include a comprehensive update of the services components but May will. Housing costs, insurance, electricity prices and personal services are likely to rise.
• Westpac consumer confidence for June is released on Tuesday and has been depressed for some time. The slightly more hawkish sounding RBA on June 18 is likely to keep sentiment weak and maybe even drive a further fall.
• The Westpac leading index for May prints on Wednesday. The 6-month annualised change, which leads detrended growth by 3 to 9 months, was close to neutral in April.
• Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations for June are published on Thursday. With RBA concerns over upside risks to inflation, press reports on the inflationary impact of government budgets and petrol prices rising over the first half of June, there is a risk that this picks up from May’s 4.1%.
• Q2 job vacancies are also on Thursday. They have eased considerably but are still above average. They fell 6.1% q/q in Q1.
• RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaks on Wednesday at 0935 AEST and Deputy Governor Hauser on Thursday at 2000 AEST. Friday sees the RBA’s private credit data.