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May IPCA Inflation Due Tomorrow

BRAZIL
  • May IPCA inflation data are due to be released tomorrow, with consensus for prices to rise by 0.42% m/m (vs. +0.38% prior), lifting the annual rate of inflation to 3.88% y/y, from 3.69%.
    • Deutsche Bank notes that the impacts of the floods in the south will continue to slowly creep into the numbers. They see the May IPCA rising by 0.39% m/m, with continued upward pressures in services, with further increases in airline tickets, and industrial goods, propelled by health and personal care. Administered prices and food at home should provide some relief.
    • Itaú looks for a 0.46% m/m increase, lifting the annual rate to 3.9%. In addition to the headline figure, the composition will show underlying services roughly stable at 4.8% (3mma saar), while underlying industrials may accelerate to 0.8% (3mma saar), from 0.1% in April.
    • Scotiabank also expects inflation to accelerate to 3.9% y/y from 3.7%, as food prices again challenge officials. They note that the BCB’s Campos Neto is clearly not happy with worsening inflation expectations and believe that the median BCB official may end up preferring no cut at the June 19 Copom meeting.
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