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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US TSYS/SUPPLY
Treasury makes its Quarterly Refunding Announcement at 0830ET/1330UK today. MNI's preview (PDF here) recaps the near-term financing outlook announced Monday, and assesses coupon auction size projections for today's release and possible contours of the buyback program that is expected to be unveiled. To recap:
- Coupon Sizes Set To Remain Steady: In February’s refunding announcement, Treasury said that “based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury does not anticipate needing to make any further increases in nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes, beyond those being announced today, for at least the next several quarters.”
- It appears that market participants are taking the Treasury’s word, as we have not seen any analyst previews of the May refunding that expect a coupon size increase. Indeed, consensus is that there will be no increases to coupon sizes through the rest of 2024 at least. (See our preview linked above for more).
- This steady rather than heavier supply outlook will be helped by the expected slowdown in Fed QT, and it is assumed that Treasury will handle modest deviations in the fiscal trajectory via bill vs bond issuance.
- The estimated issuance schedule through October is below. Not listed here are TIPS and floating-rate notes: 2Y FRN sizes are set to remain steady per guidance ($28B in May/Jun and Aug/Sep, $30B in Jul and Oct).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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