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McCrann Believes Next Hike Depends On Q3 CPI Result

RBA

Terry McCrann has written in The Australian today that if the RBA hikes again it won’t be until November after the Q3 CPI data on October 25. Monthly reads are unlikely to be enough to drive a hike, as they lack the services aggregate. He believes that a quarterly rise of less than 1.3% would be enough for the RBA to stay on hold but if it is 1.5% or above then rates will rise on November 7, depending on labour market and wage developments. McCrann believes that Lowe/Bullock “desperately don’t want to ‘over-hike’” to keep unemployment as low as possible. He also optimistically thinks they have an 80% chance of achieving this. (The Australian)

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