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McDonald's (Baa1, BBB+; S) headlines from UBS conference taking a bit out of equities (-3%)

CONSUMER STAPLES
  • Seems CFO highlighted a slow start to the year in its international IDL specific markets due to middle-east war & sluggish China. Consensus is looking for FCF of $2.05b in 1Q, from same store sales of +2.6%yoy - IDL is already forecasted to be lowest contributor at +1.5%.
  • On credit only talk was around debt levels - CFO sees it falling from $39b to $37b and staying there for "next year or two". Also reiterates a IG rating target but does see "significant investment over next couple of yrs" into the business - excess FCF to be directed towards dividend growth & buybacks.
  • It reported FY results earlier in Feb, no concern in debt metrics with healthy/$7.2b of FCF (& up from $5.5b in FY22).
  • Cash curve is moving with broader index today; 2-4 tighter.
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