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MEXICO: Goldman Sachs Believe Latest Data Supports Gradual Banxico Easing

MEXICO
  • According to Goldman Sachs, the early August inflation release supports the continuation of a gradual monetary policy rate normalization cycle.
  • Overall, core-goods inflation remains low and shows no visible signs of MXN weakness pass-through. Services inflation remains high and sticky but is now showing early signs of moderation.
  • The acceleration of headline inflation during 2Q24 and 1H Jul was driven by a major shock to non-core perishable food and rising energy prices which drove non-core inflation to a high 10.64% yoy by 1H Jul.
  • The large perishable food price shock has now started to mean-revert, a process that GS expect will continue through the end of the year. In the meantime, we will be looking for potential second-round effects of core inflation components.
  • Finally, the recent decline in oil prices should also help to ease non-core price pressures, though renewed MXN depreciation pressure may neutralize that effect.
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