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MEXICO: MXNJPY Extends August Recovery to 12.8%, Hits Fibonacci Retracement

MEXICO
  • The combination of higher core yields and higher equities have provided a perfect tailwind for MXNJPY, with the cross rallying 1.9% on Thursday and extending its recovery from the August lows to 12.8%.
  • A key victim of the carry unwind across late July and early August, MXNJPY swings have been particularly volatile and today’s price action shows little evidence that this volatility will abate.
  • However, today’s strong rally has seen the cross reach the 38.2% retracement point of the May-August selloff at 7.99 which could provide some short-term resistance. Furthermore, the previous cluster of support across late 2023 between 8.07/13 may also provide some resistance to the pair’s swift recovery.
  • There is no domestic data for the remainder of this week’s calendar, so the focus will turn to next week’s retail sales, CPI and GDP data, which represent the latest inputs into the central bank’s reaction function.

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