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MEXICO: USDMXN Extends Gains as Domestic Concerns Permeate

MEXICO
  • USDMXN is once again paying little attention to the moderately weaker USD index, and renewed strength on Tuesday sees the pair rise 1.25% to 19.65. Wires citing the judicial reform bill clearing a hurdle is perhaps a stretch, given this happened last night and only paves the way for it to be discussed by congress in September.
  • Nevertheless, the souring domestic sentiment is clear to see and alongside the waning growth outlook, a bullish technical theme in USDMXN remains intact following the rally between Jul 12 and Aug 5. Last week’s gains also represent a positive development and suggest the prior corrective pullback is over. 
  • The initial short-term objective of 19.5999 has been breached, signalling scope for further short-term strength towards 19.8362, the 76.4% retracement point of the sell-off between Aug 5 - Aug 16. Further out, a clear break of the 20.00 handle would pave the way for an extension towards 20.7642, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Nov ‘21 and Apr this year. Initial support is at the 20-day EMA, at 18.9428.
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