Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Extends Gains

Front month TTF is further extending this week’s gains supported by LNG buying interest in Asia due to the low prices, US production uncertainty for 2024, the ongoing Freeport LNG terminal outage and upcoming works expected to limit Norwegian supplies. Low demand and high inventories are limiting the current upside.

• TTF APR 24 up 1.4% at 27.86€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.3% at 28.1€/MWh
• Mild weather is set to persist across Europe in the coming two week forecast as temperatures edge higher into the middle of the month.
• Gas demand savings from households and businesses in Europe triggered by the energy crisis have continued this winter but have eased slightly from last winter according to BNEF.
• European gas storage was still high at 61.91% full on Mar. 4 according to GIE data amid below normal withdrawal rates this week. The seasonal five year average storage level is 44.8% full.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are relatively unchanged today at 344.9mcm/d but could dip at times in the coming week with small, planned field and processing plant outages.
• European LNG sendout edged slightly higher up to 383mcm/d on Mar. 4 compared to an average of 378mcm/d over the previous week.
• New EU gas import infrastructure could result in an annual excess of 352bcm in LNG and pipeline import capacity by 2030, according to Montel citing Global Energy Monitor.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities declined by 9.72% on the week to 1.95mn tons as of 3 March, according to data released by the trade ministry, cited by Bloomberg.