Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Falls As Supply Disruptions Ease

TTF is trending lower today as short-term supply disruptions are easing. Feedgas flows to Freeport have rebounded on Tuesday, indicating only a short power outage at the terminal on Monday, while pipeline gas supplies from Israel to Egypt are expected to fully recover next week, increasing the likelihood of a boost in Egyptian LNG exports.

• TTF DEC 23 down -2.6% at 46.64€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -2.1% at 48.4€/MWh
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were at 228k yesterday.
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe remain above normal this week with a small dip back to normal later in the week. The second week of the outlook suggests near normal temperatures.
• Israel’s pipeline natural gas flows to Egypt are expected to reach pre-war levels – 800mcm/d – by early next week, following the resumption of output of Chevron’s 10bcm/yr Tamar gas field according to a person familiar with Egyptian imports.
• Eni said on Tuesday it expects Egyptian LNG exports to resume in December, possibly January.
• Pipeline natural gas deliveries to the Freeport LNG plant resumed close to normal operating levels on Tuesday, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF, following a decline in power to the facility.
• Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe is today back up to 337.9mcm/d with only small outages at Oseberg, Gullfaks and Kårstø this week.
• European natural gas storage was back up to 99.49% full on Nov 12 according to GIE data after a return to small net injections over the weekend.
• The natural gas market will find a new equilibrium after 2025-2026 as a wave of new production projects will come online, which will make prices more affordable for demand to pick up, Cristian Signoretto, deputy COO of natural resources at Eni, said.
• European LNG sendout was holding just below levels seen this time last year at 432mcm/d on 12 Nov with an average of 408mcm/d so far in November.
• Global weekly LNG imports totaled 7.8mn tons on 6-12 November, down by 9% week on week, driven by less purchases from North Asia, BNEF data showed.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased again in the last week by 6.3% to 4.84mn tons as of 12 November, according to Bloomberg estimates. This was up from 4.55mn tons the prior week.
• Wood Mackenzie expects LNG consumption will peak in 2045 under a net-zero scenario with natural gas demand to remain resilient through the energy transition according to Bloomberg.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
  • JKM DEC 23 up 0.5% at 17.14$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF DEC 23 up 0.3$/mmbtu at 2.5$/mmbtu