Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF on Track for WoW Decline

TTF front month has removed earlier gains to trade lower on the day weighed on by temperatures within or above the seasonal and forecasts for high wind output in NW Europe next week, as well as low demand, high storage levels and ample supplies. TTF December is on track for a weekly net decline of 2.6%.

• TTF DEC 23 down -0.8% at 45.5€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -0.8% at 47.12€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to move above normal over this weekend before falling back to near normal during next week. The forecast shows little sign of significant cold with the last week of the month also expected near to normal.
• Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe is unchanged at 339.3mcm/d today compared to an average of 328mcm/d so far this month.
• European natural gas storage is still up near capacity at 99.36% full on Nov 15 after small withdrawals on the day according to GIE data and compared to the five year average of 89.1%.
• Northwest Europe has already received 44 LNG cargoes this month with another 27 expected before the end of the month according to Bloomberg ship tracking data.
• Chinese domestic LNG inventories stood at 413,000 tonnes as of last week, down from 414.400 tons the week prior, a survey by OilChem showed.
• The Asian LNG premium over Europe is increasing amid rising costs due to Panama Canal restrictions for mainly US suppliers.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in January 2024, February 2024 and March 2024 according to BNEF.
  • JKM DEC 23 down -3% at 17.01$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF DEC 23 down 0$/mmbtu at 2.52$/mmbtu