Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Pulls Back

Front month TTF prices are pulling back today with bearish fundamentals, a downward revision in temperatures for NW Europe next week while supply risks appear reduced.

• TTF AUG 24 down 2.1% at 32.97€/MWh
• TTF Q3 24 up 2.1% at 35.05€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW Europe remain cool this week but are expected to gradually recover back above normal from early next week. Current heat in the south is expected to persist over the coming two weeks.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 334.4mcm/d with Gassco showing 26mcm/d of capacity reductions this week falling to 16mcm/d next week.
• Total European stores are up to 77.62% full on July 1 according to GIE compared to the five-year average of 67.6%. Net injections rates last week averaged just 6.9% below normal.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities increased 0.97% w/w to 2.09m tons in the week to June 30 from 2.07m tons the previous week, according to data released by the trade ministry.
• LNG spot charter rates in the Atlantic basin have continued to strengthen since May, facing a late June rally.
• LNG futures traded volumes in H1 2024 rose year-on-year due to increased trading activity in the cargo market and stabilising APAC spot LNG prices, Platts said.
• Russian pipe natural gas and LNG supply to Europe was again greater than US LNG arrivals in Jun-24, according to ICIS figures by 0.24bcm.