Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rebounds Slightly

Front month TTF has recouped some of yesterday’s losses amid a slight downward revision in temperatures and wind forecasts, while overall short-term fundamentals remain bearish. Buyers in China and South Korea are waiting for prices to fall into $8/mmbtu range before buying more spot LNG according to traders.

• TTF MAY 24 up 1.6% at 25.97€/MWh
• TTF Q3 24 up 1.5% at 26.72€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 0.9% at 30.93€/MWh
• The European weather forecast is relatively unchanged with warmer than normal temperatures expected in the next two weeks. Temperatures are due to rise to a high on April 6 before cooling slightly towards the middle of the month.
• German natural gas consumption in March stood 24.6% below the 2018-2021 average at 2.627GWh/d, Bnetza data showed.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 340.0cm/d in line with the average over the last week. A planned outage at Kasto is ongoing.
• European gas storage was up to 59.39% full on Apr. 2 according to GIE after the start of net injections last week. The seasonal five year average is 42.2% full.
• European LNG sendout was at 294mcm/d on Apr. 2 compared to an average of 303mcm/d over the previous week.
• European LNG imports, excluding Turkey, fell to the lowest March level since 2019 according to Timera Energy with tepid demand due to the mild winter and weak power sector demand.
• NW Europe is currently scheduled to receive another 19 LNG cargoes in the coming couple of weeks following 5 cargoes arrivals so far in April according to Bloomberg ship tracker data. Total arrivals during March and February were each at 60 cargoes.
• Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company recently purchased at least one LNG shipment for May delivery and is looking procure more LNG shipments through summer, traders told Bloomberg.
• Russia’s Novatek is being forced to scale back its Arctic LNG 2 project because Western sanctions are limiting its access to ice-class tankers according to Reuters sources.
• Russian natural gas pipeline flows to Europe rose by 32% on the year to 7.7bcm, Energy Intelligence calculates based on gas transmission data showed, due to lower export prices.