Mid-day Gas Summary: TTF Removes Earlier Gains

TTF front month has removed earlier gains with an intra-day high of €42.66/MWh despite missing progress in talks between Australian LNG producers and unions to avert industrial action, which could remove some 10% of global LNG supply.

• TTF SEP 23 down -1.9% at 38.09€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -1.5% at 52.6€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.7% at 53.55€/MWh
• Australian strike update: Woodside Energy workers have already voted for a range of industrial action options and have now the possibility to start strike action within 30 days – until 10 September – with a seven days’ notice. Woodside held an all-day meeting with the union on Tuesday. The Offshore Alliance said Woodside was “well off the pace on key bargaining issues, including job security and remuneration,” following the meeting. The next mediation is scheduled for next Wednesday, but sources close to the union claimed the union could announce strike action as early as this Thursday. Chevron is currently preparing to bypass unions to put a pay offer to a direct vote of its Gorgon and Wheatstone workforce. Around 500 workers have started voting on a range of industrial action options. The ballot will finish next week. After the vote, the union can decide whether to go ahead with any action which must also take place within 30 days. Chevron is delaying plans to sell some LNG spot market cargoes from its Gorgon LNG facility. Chevron and the union held a meeting on Monday.
• LNG sendout to Europe increased slightly back up to 299mcm/d on 14 August but imports to NW Europe are still down at 149mcm/d compared to nearly 200mcm/d seen this time last year.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated today at 323.8mcm/d and in line with levels seen last week ahead of an expected drop due to planned maintenance from this weekend.
• Total storage is up to 89.75% full on a 14 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 75.8% with steady injection rates just below normal in recent days.
• Norwegian hydropower reserves increased by 3.8 percentage points on the week to 77.6% of capacity, or 67.77TWh, as of 15 August, widening the surplus above the seasonal norm to the highest so far this year.
• The JKM-TTF front month spread is currently around 0.4$/mmbtu with the US netback to Europe for October at 11.11$/mmbtu and just below the netback to Aisa at 11.8$/mmbtu.
• JKM-TTF Sep 23 unchanged at 0.45$/mmbtu