Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Resumes Gains

European gas markets are not showing a clear direction today. Front month TTF has removed earlier losses to trade higher on the day with support from Red Sea diversions and cold weather, although European supplies are coping with the increased heating demand.

• TTF FEB 24 up 2% at 31.26€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 2.1% at 31.36€/MWh
• Middle East tensions remain an upside risk with one of the largest Houthi missile and drone attacks to date in the Red Sea reported.
• Below normal temperatures are expected in NW and central Europe this week but are expected to return to near normal in the second half of January.
• European natural gas storage was down to 83.48% full on Jan 8 according to GIE data after above normal withdrawals on the day driven by the cold weather. Storage remains well above the seasonal five year average of 70.9%.
• Net European LNG import sendout rose to the highest since Dec 19 at 427mcm/d on Jan 8 driven by an increase in flows from NW Europe and Iberia according to Bloomberg.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are down slightly to 347.6mcm/d today compared to the average of 351mcm/d so far this year. Norwegian pipeline natural gas exports to Europe rose to an all-time high of 11.1bcm in December but declined by 6.7% year on year for all of 2023, Gassco said.
• Germany’s Baltic coast Mukran LNG terminal will be delayed until the end of February after storms in mid-October interrupted construction of a pipeline connecting to the mainland. No specific start date has been given.
• Chinese buyers ramped up LNG purchases since 9 January and purchased 6-8 cargoes, driven by a sharp decline in Asian LNG prices, according to market sources.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities fell by 7.04% last week to 2.51mn tons as of 7 January, trade ministry data showed.
  • JKM-TTF Feb 24 up 1.3$/mmbtu at 2.21$/mmbtu