Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rises on Cooler Outlook

TTF front month has risen to the highest level since 3 November as forecasts are pointing to colder weather late this week and end of next week, while potential LNG supply disruption from Qatar and Australia, lower floating levels and the first EU net storage withdrawal are offering additional upside. High storage levels and healthy supplies are limiting upside.

• TTF DEC 23 up 2.9% at 47.12€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 2.6% at 48.62€/MWh
• TTF 1-2 spread down 0€/MWh at -1.55€/MWh
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday slightly lower at 208k.
• The latest weather forecast for NW Europe shows above normal temperatures next week after a brief cold spell into this weekend. The forecast for the second week of the outlook is looking cooler with potential for temperatures to dip to near of just below normal.
• European LNG sendout continues to increase up to 437mcm/d on 7 Nov as floating tankers unload cargoes with November expecting to see a month on month rise in imports.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are strong up at 345.3mcm/d today after the end of an unplanned outage from the Gjoa field. Flows are expected to dip again into the weekend with a 22mcm/d outage at Oseberg on 10-12 Nov.
• European natural gas storage levels are almost unchanged from yesterday at 99.61% full but with the first net withdrawal of the winter of just 178GWh/d on 7 Nov according to GIE data.
• Floating LNG cargoes - LNG that was exported or re-exported at least 30 days ago and has not yet unloaded at a destination – remained high at 2.4mn tons as of 6 November, with around 25% of all volumes located around Europe, as mild temperatures, high storage levels and demand destruction are limiting demand according to the Bloomberg mapping tool.
• Chevron’s 15.6mtpa Gorgon LNG export facility in Australia cancelled one planned November shipment due to an outage that led to reduced output from one production train, traders told Bloomberg.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
  • JKM DEC 23 up 2.1% at 16.87$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF DEC 23 down -0.1$/mmbtu at 2.09$/mmbtu
• LNG spot charter rates are increasing again with the Spark Atlantic spot freight assessment rising 26% since mid-October according to Timera Energy.
• Asia will require more natural gas to ensure power supply amid the energy transition away from dirtier coal, according to Jera via Bloomberg.