Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Set For Nearly 9% Weekly Drop

TTF is rebounding today above €29/MWh driven by cooler forecasts in NW and central Europe for the end of the month but is still heading for a weekly net decline of nearly 9%. LNG shipping disruption continues due to Red Sea attacks and ongoing Panama Canal transit issues while US exports have seen some disruption this week due to severe cold.

• TTF FEB 24 up 4.8% at 29.22€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 4.4% at 29.61€/MWh
• The Houthi rebels launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles at the Marshall Island-flagged M/V Chem Ranger vessel on Thursday evening, the US Central Command said via X.
• Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to rise in the coming days as warm weather from southern areas spreads north. The latest forecast however shows temperatures in NW and central Europe dipping back to normal or just below towards the end of the month.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe remain strong although are nominated slightly lower today at 352.5mcm/d.
• European natural gas storage was down to 77.47% full on Jan 17 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 65.9%. Net withdrawal rates fell back below normal on Jan 17 but are still relatively near normal this week.
• Ukraine’s Naftogaz is seeking to at least double the amount of natural gas it stores for international traders by the 2024/25 winter period in order to boost domestic production, Naftogaz CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov said, cited by Bloomberg.
• European LNG sendout has averaged 411mcm/d since Jan 13 after falling back from a high of nearly 510mcm/d on Jan 9. Feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are recovering after cold weather disrupted scheduled exports this week.
• Two of Qatar’s laden LNG tankers diverted away from the Red Sea to sail to the Canary Islands for bunkering, meaning the tankers will sail via the Cape of Good Hope, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea.