Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Slides on Demand

TTF front month is extending declines throughout the session, falling back to the lowest level since 21 September, amid low demand due to a mild start to the heating season, together with high storage levels and the gradual return of Norwegian pipeline supplies.

• TTF NOV 23 down -7.8% at 36.28€/MWh
• ICE TTF traded volumes yesterday increased back to 259k in line with the September average after dipping lower to 198k on 29 September.
• The latest weather forecast is still showing above normal temperatures across Europe throughout the next two weeks although with a dip slightly cooler in the next couple of days and with the risk of near normal towards the middle of October.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated slightly lower than yesterday at 268.8mcm/d. Outages this week are expected to peak tomorrow before available capacity gradually increases through the week.
• European natural gas storage is up to 95.99% full on 1 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 87.56%.
• LNG sendout to Europe was relatively unchanged at 275mcm/d on 1 Oct and still well below levels around 375mcm/d seen this time last year. LNG volumes at sea continue to increase while warm weather is limiting demand.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in November, December and January 2024 according to BNEF.
• JKM Nov 23 down -2.7% at 12.39$/mmbtu
• JKM-TTF Nov 23 up 0.5$/mmbtu at 1.24$/mmbtu
• Global LNG imports for the week to 1 Oct fell 8% to 6.8m metric tons at the start of the holiday period for parts of North Asia according to Bloomberg.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days rose by 39% over the last week to the highest level since end-November and 83% above the 2018-2022 average, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• Egypt is planning to resume LNG exports this month after increased domestic demand led to a halt in shipment this summer, Egypt’s Energy Minister, Tarek el-Molla, said.