Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Slides on Demand

TTF front month is easing back as markets are focusing an tepid demand, rebounding Norwegian gas supplies as maintenance is concluding and high storage levels, while concerns about cold weather later this month persist.

• TTF NOV 23 down -3.7% at 37.03€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -2% at 44.25€/MWh
• ICE TTF aggregate traded volumes were slightly lower yesterday at 242k contracts.
• Weather forecasts show above normal temperatures across NW and central Europe in the coming week although suggests a cooling back just below normal from the middle of the month.
• The latest German gas demand data show, German natural gas consumption in September stood at 1.296TWh/d, down by 11.5% year on year and 26.6% below the 2018-2021 average, largely driven by lower consumption from small business and households.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 283.5mcm/d today.
• European natural gas storage is up to 96.33% full on 3 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 87.94%.
• Germany must accelerate construction of gas import infrastructure to avoid supply squeezes, RWE CEO Markus Krebber said, reported by Reuters.
• Kuwait expects its Durra gas field to be fully commissioned by 2029 according to Kuwait Petroleum executive – the field holds an estimated 20 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves.
• The Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Thursday he plans to visit Israel in November to discuss the transit of gas to Europe through Turkey.
• Norway’s Petroleum Directorate authorized the start up of the Tommeliten A gas field in the North Sea that has an estimated output of 24mcm, the NPD said.
• LNG sendout to Europe was slightly lower at 294mcm/d on 3 Oct but still above levels seen in the second half of September.
• JKM Nov 23 down -4% at 12.27$/mmbtu
• JKM-TTF Nov 23 down -0.1$/mmbtu at 0.83$/mmbtu
• European Commission deputy director-general for energy, Matthew Baldwin says the EU has no plans to sanction imports of Russian LNG or pipeline gas according to Montel.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in November, December and January 2024. The gas price spread between Asia and Europe is $2.24/MMBtu in November.
• The latest EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending 29 Sep will be released this afternoon at 15:30BST. The expectation is for a build of +94bcf according to a Bloomberg survey.