Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Supported

TTF front month has returned to gains although remains below yesterday’s peak of pulled of €42.380/MWh. Europe’s fundamentals are unchanged despite supply risks from Ukraine and Middle East conflicts.

• TTF SEP 24 up 1.1% at 40.08€/MWh
• Russia and Ukraine intend to keep pipeline gas flowing to Europe despite the continued fighting in Kursk, with neither side intending to halt flows via Sudzha, Bloomberg said. Gas transit flows through Ukraine are nominated at the normal level at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
• Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to gradually cool this week and then hold at or slightly above normal throughout the second week of the outlook.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 329.9mcm/d with capacity reductions of 28.2mcm/d today falling to 16mcm/d on Aug 15 according to Gassco.
• European gas in store is up to 87.59% full on Aug 11 according to GIE compared to the five-year average of 79.5%.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased by 7.6% last week to 3.87m tons as of Aug 11, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• Preliminary LNG offtake agreements for Adnoc’s Ruwais LNG project are currently being negotiated at a price of around 12.6% slope to crude oil, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights sources.
• The restart of Bangladesh's Summit LNG FSRU could be delayed for several more weeks after damage to an underwater gas transmission pipeline was uncovered, according to Rafiqul Islam at Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Co. cited by S&P Global.