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Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Trades Higher

NATURAL GAS
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European gas markets reversed earlier losses and are trading higher on the day following the extension to the maintenance at the large Troll field in Norway to 15 September, but the TTF front month remains below this week’s high of €37.95/MWh. Global LNG supplies remain in focus with a possible extension of strikes at facilities in Australia with full walkouts from 14 Sep.

  • TTF OCT 23 up 2.5% at 35.58€/MWh
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are up slightly to 145.3mcm/d today. The maintenance at the 125mcm/d Troll field has been extended by one day until 15 September. The field was initially scheduled to bring the bulk of the capacity back online on 7 September. Unavailable capacity will drop to 95mcm/d on 15-16 September, to 45mcm/d on 16-18 September and to 6mcm/d on 18 September to 5 October.
  • Norwegian hydropower reserves were unchanged on the week at 78.7% of capacity as of 12 September as lower hydropower output was offset by little inflows into reserves amid lower precipitation, NVE data showed.
  • Australian Strikes: ICIS has cut the output entirely from Chevron’s two facilities for the later two weeks of September resulting in 0.7mT loss at Gorgon and 0.44mT at Wheatstone. ICIS places Australian LNG supply at 4.9mT for the whole of September, post-strike deduction. Last September was 7.1mT, as a reference.
    Industrial action at Chevron’s 16mtpa Gorgon and 8mtpa Wheatstone LNG export facilities has so far not impacted LNG exports, according to a Goldman Sachs note, citing high-frequency LNG loading data.
  • At least one Japanese buyer from Wheatstone and Gorgon LNG facilities in Australia was informed by sellers that their supply isn’t affected by the ongoing industrial action, according to Platts.
  • European natural gas storage continues to edge higher amid slow injection rates up to 93.85% full on a 11 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 83.5%.
  • LNG sendout to Europe recovered back to 316mcm/d on 11 Sep after falling to 263mcm/d on 10 Sep.
  • LNG storage at major Japanese power utilities is down so far in September, though the YoY difference is narrowing slightly with an increase of 1.2% on the week to 1.68m tonnes on 10 Sep.
  • Asia remains the premium market for US LNG until March 2024, as the JKM-TTF spread widens on the prompt.
  • JKM-TTF Oct 23 up 0.4$/mmbtu at 0.74$/mmbtu
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European gas markets reversed earlier losses and are trading higher on the day following the extension to the maintenance at the large Troll field in Norway to 15 September, but the TTF front month remains below this week’s high of €37.95/MWh. Global LNG supplies remain in focus with a possible extension of strikes at facilities in Australia with full walkouts from 14 Sep.

  • TTF OCT 23 up 2.5% at 35.58€/MWh
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are up slightly to 145.3mcm/d today. The maintenance at the 125mcm/d Troll field has been extended by one day until 15 September. The field was initially scheduled to bring the bulk of the capacity back online on 7 September. Unavailable capacity will drop to 95mcm/d on 15-16 September, to 45mcm/d on 16-18 September and to 6mcm/d on 18 September to 5 October.
  • Norwegian hydropower reserves were unchanged on the week at 78.7% of capacity as of 12 September as lower hydropower output was offset by little inflows into reserves amid lower precipitation, NVE data showed.
  • Australian Strikes: ICIS has cut the output entirely from Chevron’s two facilities for the later two weeks of September resulting in 0.7mT loss at Gorgon and 0.44mT at Wheatstone. ICIS places Australian LNG supply at 4.9mT for the whole of September, post-strike deduction. Last September was 7.1mT, as a reference.
    Industrial action at Chevron’s 16mtpa Gorgon and 8mtpa Wheatstone LNG export facilities has so far not impacted LNG exports, according to a Goldman Sachs note, citing high-frequency LNG loading data.
  • At least one Japanese buyer from Wheatstone and Gorgon LNG facilities in Australia was informed by sellers that their supply isn’t affected by the ongoing industrial action, according to Platts.
  • European natural gas storage continues to edge higher amid slow injection rates up to 93.85% full on a 11 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 83.5%.
  • LNG sendout to Europe recovered back to 316mcm/d on 11 Sep after falling to 263mcm/d on 10 Sep.
  • LNG storage at major Japanese power utilities is down so far in September, though the YoY difference is narrowing slightly with an increase of 1.2% on the week to 1.68m tonnes on 10 Sep.
  • Asia remains the premium market for US LNG until March 2024, as the JKM-TTF spread widens on the prompt.
  • JKM-TTF Oct 23 up 0.4$/mmbtu at 0.74$/mmbtu