Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Rallies Again

Crude markets are rising once again with the Brent front month rising in line with yesterday's high. The updated OPEC and EIA monthly reports today and IEA monthly report tomorrow may help to understand the current oil market balance and expectations for the rest of the year.

• Brent NOV 23 up 0.7% at 91.24$/bbl
• WTI OCT 23 up 0.8% at 87.96$/bbl
• The Brent Nov 23 contract technicals show the bulls remain in the driving seat and a continuation higher would set the scene for gains towards 92.91$/bbl.
• The Libyan oil ports - Es Sider, Ras Lanuf, Brega and Zueitina – after being shut since 9 Sept because of heavy storms.
• Vortexa figures showed that Saudi Arabia drastically cut crude/condensate exports in August, by even more than 1mbd vs July, and by 1.6mbd vs the average over 2022 and H1 2023.
• Crude inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose by 300kbbl last week. Total inventories were up to 350.6mb on 8 Sep.
• Kazakhstan's daily oil output fell to 213,800 tons on 11 September, from 243,500 tons a day earlier. This is partly due to maintenance at the Karachaganak oilfields.
• Chevrons expansion of the Tengiz Future Growth Project is set to be pushed back to the end of 2024.
• Venezuela's PDVSA has restarted the Cardon refinery’s catalytic cracker after being out of service for five weeks due to an outage and lack of feedstock.
• Unionized refinery workers at Phillips 66's 356kbpd Wood River refinery in Roxana, Illinois, are preparing to vote on a final contract proposal with the refiner on Wednesday, which could prevent industrial action at the site.
• The OPIS US gasoline volume survey suggests a demand slump for last week and expects this week’s EIA report will see an implied demand number of less than 9mbpd.
• Diesel and gasoline markets have steadied after a rally over the last couple of days driven by tight supply concerns. Low inventories, the upcoming refinery season and expected drop in Russian diesel output are adding to the upward pressure on product prices despite signs of lower gasoline demand at the end of the summer season.
• The US front month diesel crack has eased back from a high of nearly 55.3$/bbl while the gasoline crack recovered back up to 27.3$/bbl yesterday.
• The Gasoil Nov-Dec spread has risen from 27.5$/mt on 7 Sep to a high of 38.5$/mt. Dec23-Dec24 is up from around 80$/mt at the start of the month to 110$/mt.
• Gasoil OCT 23 down -0.7% at 973.5$/mt
• Gasoil DEC 23-DEC 24 down -2.75$/mt at 106$/mt
• ULSD OCT 23 down -0.5% at 3.35$/gal
• US gasoline crack down -1.4$/bbl at 25.81$/bbl
• US ULSD crack down -1.1$/bbl at 52.61$/bbl