Mid-Day Power Summary: Nordics, France Resists Falls in Gas, Emissions

French and Nordic front-month power contracts are trading in green to resist price falls in EU ETS and gas amid an upward revision of average temperatures in Paris are pushing temperatures further above the 30-year norm, with a drier outlook supporting the Nordics. Germany is instead being weighed down by declines in the energy complex.

• Nordic Base Power AUG 24 up 6.4% at 28.2 EUR/MWh
  
• France Base Power AUG 24 up 3% at 47.1 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 0.4% at 69.95 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.3% at 66.26 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 1.8% at 32.09 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal AUG 24 up 0.3% at 108.25 USD/MT
• TTF front month is weaker today but supply risks for the Norwegian outages are adding support to the slow return of the Freeport LNG export terminal despite a gradual build of gas in store and muted demand.
• EU ETS Dec 24 is trading lower today, weighed down by losses in European gas, with the latest German EU ETS CAP3 EU auction clearing at €64.73/ton CO2e from €67.06/ton CO2e in the previous auction according to EEX.
• The latest month-ahead ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures were revised up from the previous day, with temperatures over 8-31 August expected to be above the 30-year norm of around 18-21C.
• Norway’s hydrological balance has been further revised down over 18 July – 2 August from this morning, with the balance remaining negative until early August -334GWh – increasing supply risks.
• The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts fell on the day, with some hourly delivery prices in Germany and France negative compared to none in the previous session
• Germany’s renewables and hydrogen targets as well as the implementation of a capacity market by 2028 are likely to disadvantage coal, specialists say, cited by Montel.
• Around 9.3GW of renewables were put into operation in Germany in 1H24, mostly due to solar installations – with 10% more PV output added on the year, data from BNetza show.
• The UK’s energy secretary Ed Miliband has established an “onshore wind taskforce” to move forward projects in the UK pipeline that were impacted by strict planning rules in 2015, Miliband said, cited by Renews.biz.
• Swedish firm Vattenfall has upped its 2025-26 hedging by 3-5 percentage points, respectively, at the end of the 1H24 compared to the end of 1Q. Vattenfall said.
• Lithuania plans to send its Vilnius 3 CHP unit to Ukraine, a capacity of 400MW, with the unit to be delivered and installed by winter, Lithuanian energy minister Dainius Kreivys said, cited by BNS.