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Mid-Month IPCA Inflation, May Outstanding Loans Due

BRAZIL
  • Focus today will be on IPCA-15 inflation data, which are due at 1300BST(0800ET). Analysts expect the headline rate of inflation to rise back above 4% in the first half of June. On a m/m basis, prices are expected to rise by 0.44% again. Also today, May outstanding loans data will be published at 1230BST(0730ET), followed by May Federal debt at 1430BST and central government budget data at 1830BST. Consensus on the latter is for a BRL 58.1bn deficit last month, after the central government ran a BRL 11.1bn surplus in April.
    • May Total Outstanding Loans, prior 5.89t
    • June IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY, est. 4.11%, prior 3.70%
    • June IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM, est. 0.44%, prior 0.44%
    • May Central Govt Budget Balance, est. -58.1b, prior 11.1b
  • On the political front, Finance Minister Haddad and BCB President Campos Neto will attend the National Monetary Council meeting at 1900BST(1400ET). Haddad will also meet with Economic Reforms Secretary Marcos Pinto at 1400BST.
  • Valor reports that after today’s National Monetary Council meeting a decree will be published that will establish a continuous inflation target of 3% from 2025. The decision was reportedly made at a meeting yesterday between President Lula and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad.
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