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MIDEAST: Axios-Israeli Official Expects Iranian Attack In 'Next Few Hours'

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Barak Ravid at Axios: "A senior Israeli official told me the warning about the expected Iranian attack reached Israel around noon local time. The official said Israel thinks the attack will be carried out in the next few hours. Netanyahu convened security consultations on the issue" Fraser Jackson at CNN: "A source tells me the attack is expected to be similar in size and scope to April's attack on Israel." 

  • If this does turn out to be the case then it could prove a 'non-escalatory retaliation'. In April, the launching of missiles against Israel was seen to have been sufficient retaliation against the bombing of an Iranian consulate building in Damascus. The relative ease with which they were shot down by Israel and its allies meant there was not a significant escalation in tensions.
  • An IDF spox says that "An Iranian attack will have consequences. [We are] Not saying more than that."
  • Hezbollah confirms it has launched missiles at military posts on the outskirts of Tel Aviv/ Israel has itself confirmed 'targeted strikes' in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
  • In an innocuous but potentially important development, Tehran has confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will lead Friday prayers. It is a rare occurrence that Khamenei leads the prayers, with the last time this took place being the aftermath of the killing of Quds Force head Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike in 2020. This was followed days later by a notable rocket barrage at a US base in Iraq attributed to Iranian-backed militias. 
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Barak Ravid at Axios: "A senior Israeli official told me the warning about the expected Iranian attack reached Israel around noon local time. The official said Israel thinks the attack will be carried out in the next few hours. Netanyahu convened security consultations on the issue" Fraser Jackson at CNN: "A source tells me the attack is expected to be similar in size and scope to April's attack on Israel." 

  • If this does turn out to be the case then it could prove a 'non-escalatory retaliation'. In April, the launching of missiles against Israel was seen to have been sufficient retaliation against the bombing of an Iranian consulate building in Damascus. The relative ease with which they were shot down by Israel and its allies meant there was not a significant escalation in tensions.
  • An IDF spox says that "An Iranian attack will have consequences. [We are] Not saying more than that."
  • Hezbollah confirms it has launched missiles at military posts on the outskirts of Tel Aviv/ Israel has itself confirmed 'targeted strikes' in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
  • In an innocuous but potentially important development, Tehran has confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will lead Friday prayers. It is a rare occurrence that Khamenei leads the prayers, with the last time this took place being the aftermath of the killing of Quds Force head Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike in 2020. This was followed days later by a notable rocket barrage at a US base in Iraq attributed to Iranian-backed militias.