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MIDEAST: SYRIA - Rebels Look To Seize Aleppo In Major Threat To Assad

MIDEAST
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Reports suggest that Syrian rebels opposed to the gov't of President Bashar al-Assad have entered Aleppo, and could be on course to take control of the country's second city in the largest anti-gov't offensive in years. NYT reports "The rebels come from an array of armed opposition factions, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which was once linked with the terror group Al Qaeda but publicly broke ties with it years ago. Turkish-backed rebel groups are also taking part." 

  • While Syria sits in a relatively isolated position in the Middle East, the risk of regime change would undoubtedly have significant geopolitical impacts on stability in the region. It would also impact 'great powers' such as Russia, which has military bases in Syria and continues to contribute towards gov't forces, and Turkey, which borders Syria to the north and has played a key role in supporting (some) rebel groups.
  • Journalist Neil Hauer sums up the situation for Assad: "A key point here is that it took many years for Russia and Iran (and Hezbollah) to grind down the rebels and enable Assad's...army to reoccupy most of the country. All three of those powers are now enormously weakened and preoccupied compared to ten years ago."
  • Among other impacts, the ouster of Assad would be a major reputational blow to Russia, would remove a key ally for Iran in the region, embolden Turkey to look to support a gov't in Damascus aligned with Ankara (particularly on countering Kurdish separatists), and eliminate one of Israel's longest-standing adversaries.
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Reports suggest that Syrian rebels opposed to the gov't of President Bashar al-Assad have entered Aleppo, and could be on course to take control of the country's second city in the largest anti-gov't offensive in years. NYT reports "The rebels come from an array of armed opposition factions, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which was once linked with the terror group Al Qaeda but publicly broke ties with it years ago. Turkish-backed rebel groups are also taking part." 

  • While Syria sits in a relatively isolated position in the Middle East, the risk of regime change would undoubtedly have significant geopolitical impacts on stability in the region. It would also impact 'great powers' such as Russia, which has military bases in Syria and continues to contribute towards gov't forces, and Turkey, which borders Syria to the north and has played a key role in supporting (some) rebel groups.
  • Journalist Neil Hauer sums up the situation for Assad: "A key point here is that it took many years for Russia and Iran (and Hezbollah) to grind down the rebels and enable Assad's...army to reoccupy most of the country. All three of those powers are now enormously weakened and preoccupied compared to ten years ago."
  • Among other impacts, the ouster of Assad would be a major reputational blow to Russia, would remove a key ally for Iran in the region, embolden Turkey to look to support a gov't in Damascus aligned with Ankara (particularly on countering Kurdish separatists), and eliminate one of Israel's longest-standing adversaries.