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Mild Bear Steepening With Powell Eyed Before 3Y Supply

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have seen a mild bear steepening as the longer end trims yesterday’s second half gains.
  • Fed Chair Powell headlines the session with his Senate appearance – see STIR bullet.
  • 3Y supply then kickstarts the week’s triple coupon issuance with 10s tomorrow and 30s on Thursday. The 3Y auction tailed by 1.1bp in June along with its lowest bid-to-cover since December.
  • Cash yields range from +0.2bp (2s) to +1.3bps (20s). 2s10s at -33.7bps (+0.8bp) is off early July high of -27.4bps but relatively elevated by recent month standards.
  • TYU4 at 110-14+ (- 04+) sits within yesterday’s range off highs of 110-20+ but more broadly consolidates Friday’s payrolls-driven gains. Volumes are subdued at 215k.
  • Yesterday’s latest high marks tentative resistance before a more important bull trigger at 111-01 (Jun 14 high).
  • Fedspeak: VC Supervision Barr on financial inclusion (0915ET, text only), Chair Powell semiannual testimony (1000ET), text + Q&A), Gov Bowman on financial inclusion (1330ET, text + Q&A).
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $58B 3Y Note auction (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $46B 52W Bill, $70B 42D CMB Bill auctions (1130ET)
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