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Minutes: Floden (1/2): "Probably advocate some further tapering"

RIKSBANK
  • "The forecast for the repo rate in the draft Monetary Policy Report now indicates that it will most likely be appropriate to raise the repo rate in the second half of 2024. This is an assessment that I fully support, but it is based on inflation and economic activity developing in line with our forecast. In this case, inflation will be just above the inflation target in 2024, while economic activity is strong. Without a rate hike, inflation would then risk being too high in the years beyond our forecast horizon."
  • "My assessment, as at the last monetary policy meeting, is that the likelihood of an interest rate adjustment being justified in the first half of the forecast period is low; it would take quite large changes in the assessment of inflationary pressures to justify a lower or higher repo rate."
  • "I still think that we have had an unnecessarily large purchase programme in 2021. I think we could have maintained roughly the same expansionary financial conditions with a smaller purchase programme, and I see several problems with the large portfolio we have now built up. But despite this, I support the proposal to buy SEK 37 billion of bonds next quarter."
  • "An even larger tapering could create unnecessary uncertainty. Moreover, with a gradual tapering, we can see how the markets react to the change, and then adjust future purchases to these experiences. My assessment today is that financial conditions will not be significantly affected by this large change in the pace of purchases. If this is true, I will probably advocate some further tapering in the coming quarters."
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