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A$ Rallies On More Hawkish RBA Outlook


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Mixed performance


It's been a mixed morning for core fixed income with gilts higher, Treasuries a little higher and Bunds a bit lower.

  • The main headlines this morning has surrounding Brexit with Barnier said to have briefed European ambassadors amid talk that France is concerned too many concessions may be made in order to achieve a Brexit deal. Later headlines have suggested that Barnier has been left with very little scope left to negotiate. Gilts are higher and sterling lower on the headlines but its still worth noting that these headlines come from Europe and it can help with the EU negotiating position to have these in the public domain - so are we genuinely edging away from a deal or is this just posturing?
  • In spite of the news, Bunds are lower and European peripheral spreads tighter. Some are suggesting that this is on the news the UK has approved the use of the Pfizer vaccine, leading to optimism a similar decision will be made across the Channel imminently.
  • Looking ahead we have ADP employment and the Fed's Beige Book due for release today. Powell will follow up his Senate testimony yesterday with an appearance in front of the House today while we also have Fed's Williams and BoE's Haskel scheduled to speak.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-4 today at 137-18 with 10y UST yields down -0.8bp at 0.920% and 2y yields down -0.9bp at 0.159%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.02 today at 174.54 with 10y Bund yields up 0.7bp at -0.523% and Schatz yields down -0.2bp at -0.726%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.12 today at 133.75 with 10y yields up 0.1bp at 0.347% and 2y yields down -0.8bp at -0.27%.

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