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Mixed UMich Messaging Underpins Mild USD Recovery

FOREX
  • Having started the session poorly, the greenback headed through the London close toward the top-end of the daily range on the back of the mixed messaging in the University of Michigan sentiment release. While headline sentiment missed expectations and pointed to a deteriorating consumer, inflation expectations firmed - the one-year inflation expectation metric rose to 3.5% from 3.2%, the highest since late 2023.
  • While gas pump prices were the likely driver, a fresh run higher in US yields helped underpin USD buying - although the week's ranges were largely respected.
  • Canadian jobs data came in notably firmer than forecast, with over 90k jobs added across the month vs. Exp. 20k. This kept a lid on the unemployment rate of 6.1%, which was expected to tick higher to 6.2%. As a result, USD/CAD heads through Friday close toward the weekly lows, with the 50-dma support undercutting at 1.3621.
  • Despite a brief reprieve mid-week, JPY weakened further Friday, with markets finding little argument for tighter Japanese monetary policy from the much poorer-than-expected real cash earnings release for March. As such, the trade-weighted JPY remains uncomfortably close to pre-intervention levels, and raising the risk of a pushback from the Japanese authorities should US CPI top expectations next week.
  • Focus for the upcoming week turns to US inflation data, with both CPI and PPI data for April due for release. Markets expect CPI to have slowed by 0.1ppts to 3.4%, and for core to slow to 3.6%.
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