MNI 5 Things: Black Friday Paves Way For Modest Q4 GDP Growth

By Laurie Laird and Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the November UK GDP

data published Friday by the Office for National Statistics.

     -- November GDP of 0.2% m/m, beat the MNI median of 0.1%, courtesy of

"Black Friday"-infused retail sales feeding through to the dominant services

sector.

     -- As a result of better than expected November growth, the UK appears on

track for a reasonable Q4. Should December match November's growth, Q4 will

expand by 0.3%, above the revised Bank of England staff forecast.

     -- Car production recorded no change in November, exceeding expectations

and ending two consecutive months of negative growth. However, over the three

months to November, manufacturing slumped by 0.8%, subtracting 0.08pp from

growth.

     -- Construction rose 2.1% 3m/3m, its sixth straight rolling three month

increase, suggesting inherent resilience in the sector. Consequently, it added

0.13pp to growth in the three months to November.

     -- The third quarter trade gap was revised downward to Stg8.783 billion

from the originally-reported Stg9.783 billion. Following the revision, the

deficit needs to fall only to Stg2.89 billion in December for fourth quarter net

trade to match the outturn in Q3.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

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