MNI 5 Things: UK Dec Retail Sales To Trim 0.01pp From Q4 GDP

By Jai Lakhani and Laurie Laird

     LONDON (MNI) - The following are the key points from retail sales data

published Friday by the Office for National Statistics.

     --Retail sales declined by 0.9% m/m in December. As a result, Q4 retail

sales declined by 0.2%, implying a 0.01 pp reduction in Q4 GDP growth.

     --A 0.2% drop in Q4 failed to confirm some retailers' forecasts of a

high-street bloodbath late in 2018. However, in value terms, Q4 growth was the

weakest in three years at -0.1%.

     --As previously noted in MNI analysis, one-off factors boosting food sales

in the latter stags of Q2 have been unwinding. The Predominantly Food Sales

category declined by 0.5% in Q4, the third consecutive 3m/3m fall.

     --Internet sales growth also declined in December. An annual rise of 9.3%

was a year low, pushing internet sales as a proportion of the total to 18.1% in

December from 18.2% in November.

     --The implied price deflator rose by 0.6% y/y, its lowest rise since

November 2016. This confirms anecdotal evidence from surveys such as the

KMPG-BRC report showing retailers discounting prices in order to retain market

share in the backdrop of weak consumer demand.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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