/MNI ANALYSIS: What's The Deal With Brexit? -....>

UK: /MNI ANALYSIS: What's The Deal With Brexit?

- Since the meaningful vote on Tuesday night markets have largely moved to price

out a no-deal scenario, whilst other tail risks such as a 2nd referendum and a

snap general election have risen.

- Sell-side research still favours a 'May led deal' as their central scenario.

They see the probability of a second referendum as low but increasing. The

prospect of a snap general election is widely dismissed, whilst most analysts

agree the no-deal likelihood has subsided since the meaningful vote.

- Betting markets are less clear on the matter and have yet to form a clear

favourite (although that may be due to the Mar 29 deadline on a May led deal

with Betfair). A second referendum in 2019 currently leads the bunch with an

implied probability of 38%, a general election in 2019 is at 35%, May led deal

before March 29th is 21%, whilst a no-deal is largely in line with sell-side

research at 12% (see fig. 3).

- See the analysis email we put out this morning - contact us if you haven't

seen it and want it.