MNI ASIA FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/n3d8mmt

     AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Still Needs A $0.7701 Break To Be Of Consequence

*RES 4: $0.7770 Oct 24 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7754 50% Fibo of $0.7884-$0.7625

*RES 2: $0.7724/30 38.2% of $0.7884-$0.7625, Nov 3 high

*RES 1: $0.7695/01 Nov 10, Nov 7 highs

*PRICE: $0.7645 @2109GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7625/31 Oct 27 low, 1.618 swing of $0.7733-$0.7898

*SUP 2: $0.7571 Jul 5 low

*SUP 3: $0.7560 1.618 swing of $0.7625-$0.7730

*SUP 4: $0.7535 Jun 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Another test towards $0.7625 support last Tuesday, before

recovering, aided by some oversold hourly conditions. To be of any substance

however, then rallies must firstly make it back through $0.7695 and then more

importantly Tuesday's $0.7701 high. While capped here, then the near term bias

will remain for lower and eventually another $0.7625 challenge. Beneath which

the lower 1% volatility band at $0.7599 then protects $0.7571-$0.7560.

KIWI TECHS: $0.6910-15 Reaction Can Dictate Intraday Direction

*RES 4: $0.7056 Oct 9 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7016 50% Fibo of $0.7214-$0.6818

*RES 2: $0.7005 Oct 24 high

*RES 1: $0.6981/87 2 month  falling res line, 1% vol band

*PRICE: $0.6928 @2121GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6910/15 Hourly support 

*SUP 2: $0.6891 Nov 7 low

*SUP 3: $0.6875 Nov 6 low

*SUP 4: $0.6856 76.4% Fibo of $0.6818-$0.6980

*COMMENTARY: Had trouble at the back end of last week on the approach to the 2

month falling resistance line  and also to the upper 1% volatility band. A

combination of this and some overbought hourly conditions have conspired to send

us lower. Now looking to the $0.6910-15 area for next support, a loss would

spoil near term upside momentum and suggest there is scope for a deeper

correction of gains seen since the late Oct low at $0.6818.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.1070-NZ$1.1080 Provides Immediate Bar To Any Recovery

*RES 4: NZ$1.1151 50% Fibo of NZ$1.1291-NZ$1.1010

*RES 3: NZ$1.1127 Nov 6 high

*RES 2: NZ$1.1096/97 Nov 10, Nov 7,Nov 8 highs

*RES 1: NZ$1.1070/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.1043 @ 2141GMT 

*SUP 1: NZ$1.1023/34 4 month rising s/line, Nov 10 low

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0990/10 76.4% of NZ$1.0898-NZ$1.1289, Nov 9 low

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0934 76.4% Fibo of NZ$1.0824-NZ$1.1289

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0898 Oct 17 low

*COMMENTARY: Still clinging to support from above the 4 month rising support, a

low of NZ$1.1034 on Friday before finding the ability to bounce. In this

respect, will need to see gains back above NZ$1.1070-80, before the immediate

bear bias is reduced. Below NZ$1.1034-NZ$1.1023 and focus will switch back to

the Nov 9 low at NZ$1.1010 and then the first of two 76.4% Fibo retrace levels

at NZ$1.0990. Above NZ$1.1080 and  previously troublesome NZ$1.0996-97 next.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 4 Month Bear Channel Base Comes Under Examination

*RES 4: Y87.67 Nov 9 high

*RES 3: Y87.46 Initial low Nov 9, now resistance

*RES 2: Y87.26 Nov 10 high

*RES 1: Y87.10/15 Hourly resistance 

*PRICE: Y86.88 @ 2155GMT

*SUP 1: Y86.79 Nov 9 low, 4 month bear channel base

*SUP 2: Y86.69 Oct 31 low

*SUP 3: Y86.56/59 Sep 6 low, 76.4% Fibo of Y85.45-Y90.31

*SUP 4: Y86.43 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY: The 4 month bear channel base came under examination at the latter

end of last week. So far this has held up but will require a move back above

Y87.15 initially and then Friday's Y87.26 high, before any near term respite

will follow. In the meantime, Y86.79 continues to provide immediate support and

protection against a continued Y86.69-Y86.59 fall, as we correct gains from the

Aug 11 low at Y85.45.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Rally Needs TO Sustain A A$1.5235-A$1.5236 Break

*RES 4: A$1.5319 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5307 1% volatility band

*RES 2: A$1.5273 61.8% Fibo of A$1.5393-A$1.5080

*RES 1: A$1.5235/36 Oct 31 high, 50% of A$1.5393-A$1.5080

*PRICE: A$1.5237 @ 2211GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5190/02 Hourly base Nov 10, Nov 9 high

*SUP 2: A$1.5175 Nov 7 high, now support

*SUP 3: A$1.5159 Initial rally high Nov 10, now support

*SUP 4: A$1.5137 Nov 10 low

*COMMENTARY: The recovery continues, most latterly challenging combined

resistance from the Oct 31 high at A1.5235 and the 50% Fibo retrace level at

A$1.5236. A high of A$1.5243 so far but will need to maintain this break, before

confidence in a further A$1.5273 recovery will surface. In the interim, support

rises to A$1.5202-A$1.5190. A loss of the latter will spoil immediate upside

momentum and call for some downside correction.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Falters On Approach To $1.1690

*RES 4: $1.1761 2 month falling resistance line

*RES 3: $1.1749 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1690 Nov 3 high

*PRICE: $1.1660 @2218GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1623 Nov 10 low

*SUP 2: $1.1600 Hourly congestion area Nov 8-9

*SUP 3: $1.1579 Nov 8 low

*SUP 4: $1.1554 Nov 7 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from around the $1.1555 level last Tuesday, before

being rescued by some near term oversold conditions. Thursday's move back above

the previously troublesome $1.1660 area is a positive and eyes are now on the

the slightly higher $1.1690 high from Nov 3. Clearly above the latter would give

the recovery a further boost. Meanwhile, Friday's $1.1623 low is initial

support, with $1.1600-$1.1579 then protecting that $1.1554-55 area again.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Another Downside Assault But Still Within Recent Range

*RES 4: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 3: Y114.34 Nov 7 high

*RES 2: Y114.07 Nov 9 high

*RES 1: Y113.70/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y113.52 @2220GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.09 Nov 9 low

*SUP 2: Y112.96 Oct 31 low

*SUP 3: Y112.62 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y112.38 76.4% Fibo of Y111.65-Y114.74

*COMMENTARY* Continued to fall last week after the less than successful break

above Y114.45-50 on Monday. At the moment, the decline is still within the

confines of the recent range, with support found around Y113.09 on Thursday.

This currently the protection to the base of the range and key Y112.96 level. In

the meantime, nearest resistance falls to Y113.70-Y114.07 but will need to climb

back above Y114.34, before the recent bear bias will be reduced.

GOLD TECHS:  Swift Fall After Failed Challenge To $1289.9 Fibo Resistance

*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1289.9 61.8% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 1: $1282.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1275.7 @2230GMT

*SUP 1: $1271.8 Nov 7 low

*SUP 2: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 3: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: $1260.7 Oct 2 low

*COMMENTARY* After trying at the back end of last week, the rally was unable to

challenge and clear $1289.9 Fibo resistance. As a result, we have seen a swift

retreat, to close the week just above the Nov 7 low at $1271.8. Will need to

remain above this latter level, if the upside momentum gained since the $1265.5

low at the beginning of the month, is to survive. Resistance falls in the

meantime, $1282.7 now the bar to any upside renaissance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]