October 04, 2024 06:01 GMT
MNI Asia Pac Weekly Macro Wrap
A round up of some of the key Asia Pac market developments from the past week.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
JAPAN
- The BoJ remains in focus with Japan’s new PM stating now is not the time for further rate hikes. The central bank itself maintains a number of watch points and is prepared to adjust policy further but is not in a rush to do so. This week’s Tankan survey pointed to a resilient economic backdrop.
AUSTRALIA
- Australia consumer spending figures were in focus this week. Retail sales rose more than forecast but another measure of household spending was less upbeat.
SHORT TERM RATES
Year-end official rate expectations across the $-bloc have remained fairly steady over the past week, with the exception of the US, where expectations have firmed by 10bps.
- For next Wednesday's RBNZ Policy Decision, markets are pricing in a 74% chance (44bps) of a 50bp cut.
CHINA
- China markets have been closed for the last 4 days due to holidays, but data at the start of the week reinforced stimulus needs.
SOUTH KOREA
- Data this week is pushing the odds towards a rate cut next week, with the CPI and PMI softer than prior prints. The CPI is now below the BoK’s long term target.
ASIA
- Philippines CPI data reinforces the BSP’s easing bias, while low inflation in Indonesia may see rate cuts soon. In contrast, resilient growth conditions in Indian suggest it too soon for the RBI to start its easing cycle next week.
ASIA EQUITY FLOWS
- Investors Rotate Out Of Asia EM Equities, in the aftermath of China’s stimulus, with SEA markets suffering.
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