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2 October 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (Z17) 97.840-880 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 97.935 - Hourly resistance Sept 14
*RES 3: 97.880 - Low Sept 14 now resistance
*RES 2: 97.865 - Hourly resistance Sept 15
*RES 1: 97.840 - High Sept 26
*PRICE: 97.820 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: 97.780 - Low Sept 28
*SUP 2: 97.760 - Hourly resistance Sept 21 now support
*SUP 3: 97.720 - 2017 Low Sept 20
*SUP 4: 97.623 - Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Bears currently remain focused on the daily bear channel base and
then 2015 lows. In saying that, correcting O/S studies remain the key concern
for bears and the 97.840-880 resistance region remains key. Above 97.880 is
needed to see bulls targeting 97.935-971 where the 55-DMA and the bear channel
top are located although the 21-DMA may slow the move. While 97.880 caps bears
retain the upper hand.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (Z17) Bears Focused On 97.0600
*RES 4: 97.2495 - 21-DMA
*RES 3: 97.2300 - Low July 26 now resistance
*RES 2: 97.2100 - Monthly Low July 20 now resistance
*RES 1: 97.1650 - Low Sept 25 now resistance
*PRICE: 97.1250 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: 97.0950 - Low Sept 27
*SUP 2: 97.0750 - Low Sept 21
*SUP 3: 97.0600 - High Mar 10 now support
*SUP 4: 97.0355 - Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: The bounce from 97.0950 last week was less than ideal for bears
given daily studies correcting from O/S and increasing the risk of a bounce back
towards 97.2100-2300. Bulls need a close above 97.2300 to confirm an easing of
bearish pressure and to shift focus back to 97.3021-3166 where key DMAs are
situated. While 97.2300 caps bears retain control and remain focused on 97.0600
and below to target 2017 lows.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Bears Focused On July Low
*RES 4: 126-050 - High Sept 20
*RES 3: 126-040 - High Sept 25, 55-DMA
*RES 2: 125-230 - Low Sept 25 now resistance
*RES 1: 125-140 - Hourly resistance Sept 29
*PRICE: 125-100 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 125-020 - Low Sept 28
*SUP 2: 124-310 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 124-280 - Low July 12
*SUP 4: 124-140 - Monthly Lows July 6 & 7
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from fresh 3mth lows stalled ahead of the 125-230
resistance Friday with the close leaving the contract looking a little heavy.
Daily momentum divergence, correcting O/S studies and the Bollinger base remain
key concerns for bears who are currently focused on tests of July lows. Layers
of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above 125-230 to gain breathing
room and a close above 126-090 to hint at a correction back to 126-270.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key This Week
*RES 4: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11
*RES 3: 2.398 - Monthly High July 7
*RES 2: 2.366 - High July 13
*RES 1: 2.359 - High Sept 28
*PRICE: 2.326 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 2.314 - Hourly support Sept 29
*SUP 2: 2.296 - Low Sept 29
*SUP 3: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a
*SUP 4: 2.266 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Sept lows resulted in pops above the 200-DMA
although the lack of follow through is a concern for bulls when combined with
the proximity of the Bollinger top (2.360), correcting O/B studies and momentum
divergence increasing the risk of a correction. The 2.284 support remains key
today with bears needing a close below to shift focus back to 2.208-2.214. Bulls
now need a close above 2.366 to retain focus on 2.437.
JGB TECHS: (Z17) Consolidating 200-DMA Break
*RES 4: 150.55 - 100-DMA
*RES 3: 150.50 - Hourly resistance Sept 27
*RES 2: 150.44 - High Sept 28
*RES 1: 150.43 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: 150.33 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 150.30 - Hourly support Sept 28
*SUP 2: 150.23 - Low Sept 28
*SUP 3: 150.11 - Low Aug 2
*SUP 4: 150.06 - Low July 20
*COMMENTARY: The close below the 200-DMA last week provided bearish confidence
with a boost. Bears continue to look for a close below 150.06 to target 149.65
July lows. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base (150.24) limiting follow
through remain key concerns for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close above
150.50 to ease bearish pressure and above 150.65 to shift focus back to
150.92-151.09 where the 21-DMA is located.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: firstname.lastname@example.org
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