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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis
25 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Still Need Close Above 97.780
*RES 4: 97.855 - High Jan 10
*RES 3: 97.804 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: 97.780 - High Jan 17
*RES 1: 97.770 - High Jan 24
*PRICE: 97.725 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.715 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 2: 97.690 - 2018 Low Jan 19
*SUP 3: 97.605 - 2015 Low Dec 12
*SUP 4: 97.550 - Low Dec 3 2014
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the contract remaining capped ahead of the
97.780-804 region where the 21-DMA is located following the bounce form 2018
lows. The contract remains heavy despite daily studies correcting from O/S. The
lack of topside follow through past 2 days adds weight to the bearish case and
sees immediate focus on 97.690 with bears currently focused on 2015 lows.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) 97.2200-2510 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 97.2800 - Hourly support Jan 3 now resistance
*RES 3: 97.2510 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: 97.2200 - Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance
*RES 1: 97.2050 - High Jan 24
*PRICE: 97.1500 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.1350 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 2: 97.0900 - Monthly Low Oct 3
*SUP 3: 97.0750 - Monthly Low Sept 21
*SUP 4: 96.9875 - 2017 Low Mar 10
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on the bounce from 2018 lows
with daily studies correcting from O/S and adding support. The failure to
trouble the 21-DMA has left the contract looking heavy once more with focus on
97.0750-0900 where monthly lows are situated and a close below to pressure 2017
lows. Bulls now need a close above 97.2200 to gain breathing room and above the
100-DMA (97.2996) to shift focus to 97.3544-4000 where 55 & 200-DMAs are noted.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Remains Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance
*RES 4: 123-05+ Highs Jan 11 & 16, 21-DMA
*RES 3: 122-30 Hourly resistance Jan 17
*RES 2: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance
*RES 1: 122-12 Hourly resistance Jan 24
*PRICE: 122-07 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 122-04 Low Jan 24
*SUP 2: 122-06 Hourly resistance Jan 22 now support
*SUP 3: 122-01+ 2018 Low Jan 22
*SUP 4: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011
*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on the most recent 2018 and 6+ year
low with O/S daily studies looking to correct the key concern for bears. The
122-20 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above to hint at a correction
back to 123-05+/123-20 where a channel top and 21-DMA are situated. Bears remain
focused on 120-25+/121-22+ while 122-20 caps.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 2.692
*RES 4: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014
*RES 3: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014
*RES 2: 2.681 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 2.672 - 2018 High Jan 22
*PRICE: 2.650 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 2.634 - Hourly support Jan 24
*SUP 2: 2.609 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 3: 2.585 - Low Jan 18
*SUP 4: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support
*COMMENTARY: Despite topside follow through lacking on recent 2018 & 3+ year
highs bears have failed to capitalise with the yield finding support ahead of
the key 2.571 level on Wednesday's dip. Bears continue to look for a close below
2.571 to hint at a correction back to 2.489-525 where the 21-DMA (2.525) is
noted. Bulls still need a close above 2.692 to confirm focus on 2.763-821 where
the daily bull channel top (2.778) is situated.
JGB TECHS: (H18) Bulls Still Need Close Above 200-DMA
*RES 4: 150.63 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: 150.55 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: 150.56 - High Jan 15
*RES 1: 150.48 - Alternating support/resistance
*PRICE: 150.36 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 150.25 - 2018 Low Jan 18
*SUP 2: 150.19 - Low Oct 23
*SUP 3: 150.08 - Monthly Low Oct 3
*SUP 4: 150.06 - Low July 20
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA
with bulls needing a close above the 200-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift
initial focus to 150.73-84 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. A close above 150.84
is needed to target 151.19-21. The close below 150.41 sees immediate focus on
the break of 150.19 needed to reconfirm focus on 150.06-19 and hint at a move
targeting the 200-WMA (149.19).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.