MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

25 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Still Need Close Above 97.780 

*RES 4: 97.855 - High Jan 10 

*RES 3: 97.804 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 97.780 - High Jan 17 

*RES 1: 97.770 - High Jan 24

*PRICE: 97.725 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.715 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: 97.690 - 2018 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 3: 97.605 - 2015 Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: 97.550 - Low Dec 3 2014

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the contract remaining capped ahead of the

97.780-804 region where the 21-DMA is located following the bounce form 2018

lows. The contract remains heavy despite daily studies correcting from O/S. The

lack of topside follow through past 2 days adds weight to the bearish case and

sees immediate focus on 97.690 with bears currently focused on 2015 lows.

AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) 97.2200-2510 Resistance Region Key 

*RES 4: 97.2800 - Hourly support Jan 3 now resistance

*RES 3: 97.2510 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: 97.2200 - Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance

*RES 1: 97.2050 - High Jan 24

*PRICE: 97.1500 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.1350 - Low Jan 24

*SUP 2: 97.0900 - Monthly Low Oct 3

*SUP 3: 97.0750 - Monthly Low Sept 21

*SUP 4: 96.9875 - 2017 Low Mar 10

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on the bounce from 2018 lows

with daily studies correcting from O/S and adding support. The failure to

trouble the 21-DMA has left the contract looking heavy once more with focus on

97.0750-0900 where monthly lows are situated and a close below to pressure 2017

lows. Bulls now need a close above 97.2200 to gain breathing room and above the

100-DMA (97.2996) to shift focus to 97.3544-4000 where 55 & 200-DMAs are noted.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Remains Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: 123-05+ Highs Jan 11 & 16, 21-DMA

*RES 3: 122-30 Hourly resistance Jan 17

*RES 2: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 1: 122-12 Hourly resistance Jan 24

*PRICE: 122-07 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 122-04 Low Jan 24

*SUP 2: 122-06 Hourly resistance Jan 22 now support

*SUP 3: 122-01+ 2018 Low Jan 22

*SUP 4: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on the most recent 2018 and 6+ year

low with O/S daily studies looking to correct the key concern for bears. The

122-20 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above to hint at a correction

back to 123-05+/123-20 where a channel top and 21-DMA are situated. Bears remain

focused on 120-25+/121-22+ while 122-20 caps.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 2.692

*RES 4: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014 

*RES 3: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 2: 2.681 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.672 - 2018 High Jan 22

*PRICE: 2.650 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.634 - Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 2: 2.609 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 3: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 4: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite topside follow through lacking on recent 2018 & 3+ year

highs bears have failed to capitalise with the yield finding support ahead of

the key 2.571 level on Wednesday's dip. Bears continue to look for a close below

2.571 to hint at a correction back to 2.489-525 where the 21-DMA (2.525) is

noted. Bulls still need a close above 2.692 to confirm focus on 2.763-821 where

the daily bull channel top (2.778) is situated.

JGB TECHS: (H18) Bulls Still Need Close Above 200-DMA 

*RES 4: 150.63 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: 150.55 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: 150.56 - High Jan 15

*RES 1: 150.48 - Alternating support/resistance

*PRICE: 150.36 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.25 - 2018 Low Jan 18 

*SUP 2: 150.19 - Low Oct 23 

*SUP 3: 150.08 - Monthly Low Oct 3 

*SUP 4: 150.06 - Low July 20

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA

with bulls needing a close above the 200-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift

initial focus to 150.73-84 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. A close above 150.84

is needed to target 151.19-21. The close below 150.41 sees immediate focus on

the break of 150.19 needed to reconfirm focus on 150.06-19 and hint at a move

targeting the 200-WMA (149.19).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]