MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

5 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 97.770 

*RES 4: 97.900 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 97.899 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 97.855 - High Jan 10 

*RES 1: 97.840 - High Feb 1

*PRICE: 97.820 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.780 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 2: 97.770 - High Jan 24 now support 

*SUP 3: 97.705 - Low Jan 31 

*SUP 4: 97.690 - 2018 Low Jan 19

*COMMENTARY: Gains last week lacked follow through with the contract looking a

little offered to end the week. The 97.770 support remains key this week. Bears

need a close below 97.770 to see focus return to the 97.690-705 support region.

The 97.855 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close above this level

to confirm immediate focus on 97.899-910 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) 97.2200 Resistance Remains Key 

*RES 4: 97.2200 - Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance

*RES 3: 97.1993 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: 97.1950 - High Jan 31

*RES 1: 97.1350 - Low Feb 1 now resistance

*PRICE: 97.1700 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.1050 - 2018 Low Jan 22

*SUP 2: 97.0900 - Monthly Low Oct 3

*SUP 3: 97.0750 - Monthly Low Sept 21

*SUP 4: 97.0627 - Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 21-DMA capping last week's attempts to

rally with the contract again looking heavy and pressuring key supports

97.0267-1050. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of

resistance remain and weigh. Bulls now need a close above 97.2200 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus to 97.2800-4000 where the bear

channel top and key DMAs are located.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 121-10+

*RES 4: 121-31  Low Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 3: 121-22  Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 2: 121-10+ Low Jan 31 now resistance

*RES 1: 121-02  Hourly support Feb 2 now resistance

*PRICE: 120-23+ @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 120-21  2018 Low Feb 2

*SUP 2: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 117-29  Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*COMMENTARY: Repeated 2018 and 6+ year lows leave the contract looking offered

and closing below the bear channel base. Focus now shifts to the 117-29/119-24

support region where levels last seen in 2011 are noted, O/S daily studies

remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now look for a close above 121-10+ to

ease immediate bearish pressure and above 121-31 to initially pressure

122-14+/20 where the 21-DMA is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Support Layers Building

*RES 4: 3.154 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 1: 2.854 - 2018 High Feb 2

*PRICE: 2.852 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.820 - Hourly support Feb 2 

*SUP 2: 2.801 - Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.783 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 4: 2.754 - High Jan 31 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for repeated 2018 & 3+ year

highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.912-3.014 and overall focus now on

3.154. The Bollinger band top (2.816) and O/B studies remain concerns for bulls.

Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.781 to gain

breathing room and below 2.754 to shift focus back to 2.676-696. Bulls now look

for a close above 2.912 to add support to their case.

     JGB TECHS: (H18) 150.06 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: 150.56 - High Jan 15

*RES 3: 150.46 - High Jan 26

*RES 2: 150.39 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: 150.38 - Hourly support Jan 26 now resistance

*PRICE: 150.13 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.21 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support 

*SUP 2: 150.09 - 2018 Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: 150.08 - Monthly Low Oct 3 

*SUP 4: 150.06 - Low July 20

*COMMENTARY: The failure by bears to challenge the 150.06 support resulted in a

bounce to end the week. Layers of resistance remain with bulls now needing a

close above 150.46 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and to shift focus to

150.56-70 where key DMAs are situated. While 150.460 caps bears remained focused

on the close below 150.06 needed to add weight to the case for a move targeting

the 200-WMA (149.22).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]