MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

16 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

     AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA 

*RES 4: 97.890 - High Feb 9 

*RES 3: 97.875 - High Feb 14 

*RES 2: 97.868 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 97.855 - High Feb 15

*PRICE: 97.845 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.820 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 2: 97.793 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 97.790 - Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: 97.755 - Low Feb 5

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 55-DMA has taken its toll with correcting

modestly O/B studies adding weight to the bearish case. In saying that, bears

now need a close below 97.790 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and return focus

to 97.690-705 with a close below 97.755 to add weight to their case. Bulls now

need a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above 97.905 to shift

focus to 97.950-98.017.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) Weekly Bull Channel Base The Focus 

*RES 4: 97.2000 - Hourly resistance Feb 6

*RES 3: 97.1850 - High Feb 9

*RES 2: 97.1700 - High Feb 14

*RES 1: 97.1250 - Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*PRICE: 97.0950 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.0450 - 2018 Low Feb 6

*SUP 2: 96.9939 - Weekly Bull channel base (Off 2008 Low)

*SUP 3: 96.9780 - Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 96.9650 - Monthly Low Dec 7 2015

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of the 97.1850 resistance resulted in a

close below 97.1250 and focus firmly on the weekly bull channel base (96.9939).

Bears look for a close below 96.9650 to confirm a break of the channel base and

potentially target 95.5895. Bulls need a close above 97.1250 to gain breathing

room and above 97.2350 to shift initial focus to 97.2797-3358 where 55, 100 &

200-DMAs are located.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 120-27

*RES 4: 121-23 Hourly resistance Feb 6

*RES 3: 121-08 Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance

*RES 2: 120-27 Low Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 120-20 Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: 120-12+ @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 120-01 2018 Low Feb 15

*SUP 2: 120-00+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 4: 118-24 Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bears reconfirmed dominance with H18 remaining capped ahead of

121-08 and the sell-off resulting in fresh 2018 & 7Yr lows. Follow through has

been lacking on the dip below the bear channel base with bears now focused on

117-29/119-24 where levels last seen in 2011 are noted. Layers of resistance

have followed H18 lower. Bulls now look for a close above 120-27 to gain

breathing room and above 121-23 to hint at a correction to 122-20/123-05+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2014 High

*RES 4: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 3: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 1: 2.944 - 2018 High Feb 15

*PRICE: 2.906 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.882 - Low Feb 18 

*SUP 2: 2.844 - Hourly breakout level Feb 14 

*SUP 3: 2.808 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 4: 2.786 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand after the yield looked heavy in past

days with immediate focus now on the 3.041 2014 high. A close above this level

sees initial focus on 3.073-223 where July 2011 monthly highs are situated. O/B

studies and the Bollinger top (2.959) are concerns for bulls. In saying that,

bears need a close below 2.844 to gain breathing room and below 2.808 to shift

initial focus to 2.758-772 where the 21-DMA is noted.

     JGB TECHS: (H18) Focus Shifts To 150.84+-151.02 

*RES 4: 151.02 - Monthly High Dec 4

*RES 3: 150.99 - 100-WMA

*RES 2: 150.84 - 2018 High Jan 4

*RES 1: 150.71 - High Feb 15

*PRICE: 150.67 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.62 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: 150.55 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 3: 150.47 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 4: 150.39 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around key DMAs has come to an end with a rally and

close above DMAs that sees bulls now focused on 150.84-151.02 where the 100-WMA

and monthly highs are situated. Layers of support remain with bears now needing

a close below 150.55 to confirm a false break higher and below 150.36 to shift

focus back to 150.09 2018 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]