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5 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (M18) 97.770 Support Now Key
*RES 4: 97.910 - High Mar 29
*RES 3: 97.875 - 200-DMA
*RES 2: 97.830 - Lows May 30 & 31 now resistance
*RES 1: 97.813 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: 97.790 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.770 - Low May 24
*SUP 2: 97.740 - Low May 22
*SUP 3: 97.700 - Monthly Low May 17
*SUP 4: 97.675 - 2018 Low Apr 24
*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of the weekly bear channel top off 2016 highs and
the 55-WMA (97.933) has now resulted in closes below key DMAs with bears now
looking for a close below 99.770 to return focus to 2018 lows. Correcting O/B
studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above 97.930 to
gain breathing room and a close above the 200-DMA to confirm focus on
97.9100-9550 where monthly and yearly highs are noted.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 97.2900
*RES 4: 97.4100 - Monthly High May 30
*RES 3: 97.3650 - High May 31
*RES 2: 97.2900 - Low June 1 now resistance
*RES 1: 97.2632 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: 97.2400 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.2381 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 97.2115 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: 97.2040 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 97.1500 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: The rejection around the 100-WMA (97.4045) left the contract
looking offered and returned focus to 97.1500-2381 where key DMAs are located.
Bears need a close below 97.1500 to confirm breaks of DMAs and to shift
immediate focus back to 97.0450-1100 where the weekly LT bull channel base and
2018 low are noted. Bulls now need a close above 97.2900 to gain breathing room.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Below 118-30 To Pressure 2018 Lows
*RES 4: 120-24 Hourly resistance May 30a
*RES 3: 120-16 Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 2: 119-30+ Hourly resistance June 1
*RES 1: 119-19 Low June 1 now resistance
*PRICE: 119-14 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 119-11 Low May 28
*SUP 2: 119-05+ 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 118-30 Low May 24
*SUP 4: 118-19 High May 22 now support
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 3mth highs was less than ideal
last week given O/B daily studies. Bears now look for a close below 118-30 to
confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 2018 lows.
Correcting O/B studies are adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a
close above 119-30 to gain breathing room and above 120-16 to shift immediate
focus to 121-03 highs from last week.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.902 Support Key Today
*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22
*RES 3: 3.014 - Low May 24 now resistance
*RES 2: 2.975 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.944 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 2.926 - High June 1 now support
*SUP 2: 2.902 - Low June 4
*SUP 3: 2.860 - Low June 1
*SUP 4: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low sees the yield pressuring the
21-DMA. Bulls now need a close above 3.014 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and
add support to the initial case for a retest of 2018 highs. Correcting O/S
studies add support to the bullish case. Bears now need a close below 2.902 to
gain breathing room and below 2.860 to reconfirm focus on 2.717-759 where Mar &
May lows are noted.
JGB TECHS: (M18) 100-DMA Support Key Today
*RES 4: 151.15 - 2018 High Mar 2
*RES 3: 151.13 - Monthly High May 30
*RES 2: 151.02 - Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 1: 150.90 - Hourly support May 28 now resistance
*PRICE: 150.81 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 150.75 - 200-DMA
*SUP 2: 150.73 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: 150.62 - Low May 16
*SUP 4: 150.39 - Monthly Low Apr 26
*COMMENTARY: Having looked offered heading into Friday bears were not
disappointed with a dip pressuring key DMAs. Bears now look for a close below
the 100-DMA to shift initial focus to 150.62 and overall focus to 150.39.
Correcting modestly O/B studies are currently weighing and adding to bearish
confidence. Bulls now need a close above 150.90 to gain breathing room and above
151.02 to return focus to 151.13-19.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: firstname.lastname@example.org