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MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis
3 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (U18) Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: 98.027 - 200-WMA
*RES 3: 98.015 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 2: 97.974 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 97.965 - 2018 High July 2
*PRICE: 97.940 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.900 - Low June 29
*SUP 2: 97.863 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 97.835 - High June 14 now support
*SUP 4: 97.803 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2018 & 8mth highs is a
concern for bulls with daily momentum divergence noted, O/B studies in general
and the Bollinger top lurking just above. Bears now look for a close below
97.900 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to 97.795-863 where key
DMAs are clustered. Bulls now need a close above 97.965 to reconfirm focus on
98.015-031 where 100 & 200-WMAs are noted.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 97.3350
*RES 4: 97.4447 - Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 97.4400 - 2018 High Apr 3
*RES 2: 97.4297 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 97.4200 - High July 2
*PRICE: 97.3600 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.3350 - Low June 26 & 27
*SUP 2: 97.3013 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 97.2550 - Hourly support June 14
*SUP 4: 97.2349 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2018 highs is a concern for bulls given daily
studies correcting from O/B, daily momentum divergence and Bollinger tops
lingering above. Bulls need a close above 97.4400 to confirm a break of the
100-WMA (97.3758) and initially target 97.5000-5200. Bears look for a close
below 97.3350 to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to shift focus back
to 97.1360-1725.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Looking Offered
*RES 4: 121-03 High May 30
*RES 3: 120-24 Hourly resistance May 30a
*RES 2: 120-16 Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 1: 120-05 Hourly resistance July 2
*PRICE: 120-01+ @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 119-26+ Low June 26
*SUP 2: 119-20+ Low June 22
*SUP 3: 119-13+ Low June 21, 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 118-29+ Low June 13
*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out the 120-16 resistance and confirm focus on
121-03/12 has left the contract looking offered with the break below 120-02
easing bullish pressure. Bears now look for a close below 119-26+ to shift
initial focus back to 119-13+ with below 118-29+ needed to target 2018 lows.
Bulls now need a close above 120-05 to gain breathing room and above 120-16 to
confirm focus on 121-03/12.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.873-950 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: 2.950 - High June 21
*RES 3: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21
*RES 2: 2.900 - High June 26
*RES 1: 2.873 - Hourly resistance June 27, High July 2
*PRICE: 2.871 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 2.855 - Hourly support July 2
*SUP 2: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30
*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a
*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29
*COMMENTARY: Topside failures around 2.950 saw pressure return to the 2.853
support resulting in a close below Wednesday seeing bears focused on 2.717-759
where Apr & May lows are noted. The Bollinger base (2.830) is the key concern
for bears and currently supports. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.873
to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance
region.
JGB TECHS: (U18) Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: 151.19 - Monthly High Nov 22
*RES 3: 151.15 - 2018 High Mar 2
*RES 2: 151.13 - Monthly High May 30
*RES 1: 151.02 - Hourly resistance May 30
*PRICE: 150.93 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 150.89 - High June 25 now support
*SUP 2: 150.80 - Low June 29
*SUP 3: 150.71 - Low June 15
*SUP 4: 150.60 - Low June 14
*COMMENTARY: Narrow sideways trading came to an end Monday with fresh 4 week
highs seeing focus now on 151.02-19 where 2018 & monthly highs are situated.
Daily studies looking to correct from modestly O/B and the lack of topside
follow through Monday are seen as concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears now
need a close below 150.89 to signal a false break higher and return focus to
150.71-80.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.