MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

18 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7916-59 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 3: $0.8124 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 2: $0.8102 - High Sept 20

*RES 1: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*PRICE: $0.8018 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8000 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7959 - Hourly support Jan 17 

*SUP 3: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 4: $0.7916 - High Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Bullish focus shifted to tests of 2017 highs following gains last

week and support emerging ahead of 21 ($0.7825) & 100 ($0.7773) DMAs. Bears now

need a close below $0.7959 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $0.7916

to target a correction back to $0.7773-0.7825 where the 21 & 100-DMAs are noted.

O/B studies and the Bollinger top are key concerns but having little impact at

present as bulls target 2017 highs.

KIWI TECHS: $0.7221-90 Support Region Now Key

*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7433 - Monthly High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $0.7374 - High Sept 25 

*RES 1: $0.7331 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $0.7325 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7290 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support

*SUP 2: $0.7262 - Hourly resistance Jan 17a now support

*SUP 3: $0.7233 - Low Jan 17

*SUP 4: $0.7221 - Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: The close above $0.7243 last week ended bearish hopes and shifted

initial focus to $0.7374-0.7433 where Sept highs are located. O/B daily studies

looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls as layers of support build.

Bears now look for a close below $0.7290 to ease bullish pressure and below

$0.7221 to target a correction back to $0.7117-37 where the 200-DMA is situated.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.1012 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.1001 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0973 - Hourly resistance Jan 17

*PRICE: NZ$1.0957 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0895 - Low Jan 15

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0836 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0824 - Monthly Low Sept 21

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0798 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back to the 200-DMA resulted in a test of

55 & 100-DMAs Wednesday but the rejection now leaves the pair looking a little

heavy. Bears continue to look for closes above the 55 & 100-DMA to end bearish

hopes and return overall focus to tests of 2017 highs. Daily studies remain well

placed for gains. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0895 to gain breathing room

and below NZ$1.0730 (100-WMA) to initially target NZ$1.0588.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Focus Remains On 2017 Highs

*RES 4: Y90.30 - 2017 High Sept 21 

*RES 3: Y89.67 - High Sept 25 

*RES 2: Y89.09 - High Oct 23 

*RES 1: Y88.92 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y88.86 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y88.41 - Hourly support Jan 17

*SUP 2: Y87.73 - Low Jan 16

*SUP 3: Y87.27 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: Y86.62 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls made up for the recent lack of topside follow through with an

aggressive rally and likely bullish close that reconfirms focus on Y89.09-90.30

where 2017 highs are situated. Daily studies are well placed for further topside

with bulls needing a close above Y89.09 to add support to their case. Support

layers are building with bears needing a close below Y88.41 to gain breathing

room and below the 100-DMA to pressure 55 & 200-DMAs.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: A$1.5467 - Hourly support Dec 21 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5446 - High Jan 12

*RES 2: A$1.5416 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: A$1.5343 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5285 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5238 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5148 - 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: A$1.5079 - Monthly Low Nov 9

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 55-DMA has taken its toll with a likely close

below A$1.5311 that eased bullish pressure and returns initial focus to A$1.5148

2017 lows and overall focus to tests of the 200-DMA (A$1.5015). daily studies

are well placed for a leg lower. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room and above A$1.52446 to regain the upper hand and return focus to

tests of 2017 highs (A$1.5774).

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Focused On 88.125

*RES 4: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.826 - High Jan 16

*PRICE: 90.405 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 90.113 - 2018 Low Jan 17

*SUP 2: 89.776 - Low Dec 26 2014

*SUP 3: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014

*SUP 4: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: The index remains heavy with 3+ year lows seeing bears focused on

the 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly low. O/S daily studies and Bollinger band base

(90.359) are concerns for bears. Layers of resistance accumulating adds weight

to the bearish case with bulls needing a close above 91.011 to ease bearish

pressure and above 91.879 to hint at a correction back to 92.253-93.232 where

key DMAs are clustered.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2186

*RES 4: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014

*RES 3: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 2: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2322 2018 High Jan 17

*PRICE: $1.2260 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2186 Low Jan 15 

*SUP 2: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2111 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $1.2075 Hourly resistance Jan 12a now support

*COMMENTARY: The $1.2186 support continues to confirm significance with the pair

again finding support on dips back towards this level. Bears need a close below

$1.2186 to ease bullish pressure and below $1.2075 to shift focus back to

$1.1844-1.2008 where key DMAs are noted. Bulls currently focus on the LT weekly

bear channel top off mid 2008 highs. O/B studies and Bollinger top are key

concerns for bulls.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y111.19

*RES 4: Y112.29 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.71 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y111.19 High Jan 15

*PRICE: Y110.82 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.18 Hourly support Jan 17 

*SUP 2: Y109.65 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: Y109.54 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower that began with failures ahead of Y113.44 sees

bears initially focused on Y109.54-65 where the bear channel base is situated

with overall focus on tests of 2017 lows. Layers of resistance remain and add to

bearish confidence. Bulls still need a close above Y111.19 to gain breathing

room and above the 100-DMA to shift focus back to Y112.86-113.44 where the bear

channel top is noted.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y134.81

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 2: Y136.32 High Jan 8, Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y136.09 High Jan 16

*PRICE: Y135.84 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.44 Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 2: Y134.93 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off found support around the 21-WMA and ahead of the

100-DMA (Y132.99) with the recovery seeing initial focus back on 2018 highs.

While the 100-DMA supports overall bullish focus remains on 139.02-141.05 where

monthly highs are noted. Bears still need a close back below Y134.81 to ease

bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-WMA and 100-DMA. Below the

100-DMA shifts focus to Y130.59-132.03.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1326.6-1331.6 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 1: $1344.5 - 2018 High Jan 15

*PRICE: $1337.6 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.6 - Low Jan 17 

*SUP 2: $1326.6 - High Jan 10 now support 

*SUP 3: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: Recent fresh 2018 and 4mth highs have lacked a little follow

through so far but bulls take comfort in the bounce from ahead of the Jan 10

high which retains focus on 2017 and then 2016 highs. O/B studies and the

Bollinger band top ($1356.2) remain key concerns for bulls. Bears look for a

close below $1326.6 to ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to

$1302.5-1305.9 where the 21-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]