MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

19 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7916

*RES 4: $0.8102 - High Sept 20

*RES 3: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 2: $0.8022 - 2018 High Jan 17

*RES 1: $0.8008 - High Jan 18

*PRICE: $0.7994 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: $0.7916 - High Jan 12 

*SUP 3: $0.7882 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7846 - Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on Wednesday's 2018 & 4mth highs which

is a concern with daily studies looking to correct from O/S and daily momentum

divergence. The break of $0.7959 lacked follow through Thursday with bears now

needing a close below $0.7916 to target a correction back to $0.7773-0.7838

where the 21 & 100-DMAs are noted. While $0.7916 supports bulls remain focused

on 2017 highs and then $0.8295 2015 highs.

KIWI TECHS: $0.7221-85 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $0.7433 - Monthly High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $0.7374 - High Sept 25 

*RES 2: $0.7331 - 2018 High Jan 17 

*RES 1: $0.7320 - High Jan 18

*PRICE: $0.7308 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7285 - Hourly support Jan 18

*SUP 2: $0.7244 - Low Jan 18

*SUP 3: $0.7233 - Low Jan 17

*SUP 4: $0.7221 - Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: The close above $0.7243 last week ended bearish hopes and shifted

initial focus to $0.7374-0.7433 where Sept highs are located. O/B daily studies

looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls as layers of support build.

Bears now look for a close below $0.7285 to ease bullish pressure and below

$0.7221 to target a correction back to $0.7119-49 where the 200-DMA is situated.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 100-WMA Key Support, 55 & 100-DMAs Key Resistance

*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.1011 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0997 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0984 - High Jan 18

*PRICE: NZ$1.0938 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0895 - Low Jan 15

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0836 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0824 - Monthly Low Sept 21

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0798 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back to the 200-DMA resulted in a test of

55 & 100-DMAs Wednesday but the rejection left the pair looking a little heavy.

Bears continue to look for closes above the 55 & 100-DMA to end bearish hopes

and return overall focus to tests of 2017 highs. Daily studies remain well

placed for gains. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0895 to gain breathing room

and below NZ$1.0730 (100-WMA) to initially target NZ$1.0588.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Focus Remains On 2017 Highs

*RES 4: Y90.30 - 2017 High Sept 21 

*RES 3: Y89.67 - High Sept 25 

*RES 2: Y89.09 - High Oct 23 

*RES 1: Y88.95 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y88.80 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y88.41 - Hourly support Jan 17, Low Jan 18

*SUP 2: Y87.73 - Low Jan 16

*SUP 3: Y87.28 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: Y86.63 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls made up for the recent lack of topside follow through with an

aggressive rally and bullish close Wed that reconfirmed focus on Y89.09-90.30

where 2017 highs are situated. Daily studies are well placed for gains with

bulls needing a close above Y89.09 to add support to their case. Support layers

are building with bears needing a close below Y88.41 to gain breathing room and

below the 100-DMA to pressure 55 & 200-DMAs.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 100-DMA For Now

*RES 4: A$1.5467 - Hourly support Dec 21 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5446 - High Jan 12

*RES 2: A$1.5420 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: A$1.5344 - High Jan 18

*PRICE: A$1.5308 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5238 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5148 - 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: A$1.5079 - Monthly Low Nov 9

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 55-DMA has taken its toll with a close below

A$1.5311 Wed that eased bullish pressure and returned initial focus to A$1.5148

2017 lows and overall focus to tests of the 200-DMA (A$1.5021). Bulls now need a

close above A$1.5344 to gain breathing room and above A$1.5446 to regain the

upper hand and return focus to tests of 2017 highs (A$1.5774).

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 91.011-879 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 91.879 - High Jan 12 

*RES 3: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 2: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 1: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance

*PRICE: 90.571 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 90.219 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 90.113 - 2018 Low Jan 17

*SUP 3: 89.776 - Low Dec 26 2014

*SUP 4: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from fresh 2018 & 3+yr lows with

focus currently on 91.011-91.879. Bulls need a close above 91.011 to ease

bearish pressure and above 91.879 to hint at a correction back to 92.127-93.159

where key DMAs are clustered. Bears now need a close below 91.011 to retain

overall focus on tests of the 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly low. Correcting O/S daily

studies increase correction risk.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Lower Hourly Swing Highs Weighing

*RES 4: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2322 2018 High Jan 17

*RES 2: $1.2288 Hourly resistance Jan 17

*RES 1: $1.2265 High Jan 18

*PRICE: $1.2234 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2111 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 3: $1.2075 Hourly resistance Jan 12a now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2021 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs

combined with lower hourly swing highs resulted in a break of $1.2186 although

follow through has been lacking. Bears now need a close below $1.2156 to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure and below $1.2075 to shift focus back to

$1.1846-1.2021 where key DMAs are noted. Bulls now need a close above $1.2322 to

reconfirm focus on the LT bear channel top $1.2690.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below Y110.68

*RES 4: Y112.56 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Y112.30 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y111.73 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y111.09 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.68 Low Jan 18 

*SUP 2: Y110.56 Hourly resistance Jan 16 now support 

*SUP 3: Y110.18 Hourly support Jan 17 

*SUP 4: Y109.62 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with lows continuing to

lack follow through so far this week and the bounce Wednesday easing immediate

bearish pressure. Bulls now need a close above Y111.98 to shift focus to

Y112.86-113.44 although DMAs Y112.28-56 may slow the move. Bears now look for a

close below Y110.68 to ease pressure on resistance layers and reconfirm focus on

tests of the bear channel base.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.81 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 2: Y136.42 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*PRICE: Y135.92 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.44 Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 2: Y134.99 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 2018 highs found support around the 21-WMA and

ahead of the 100-DMA (Y133.04) with the recovery seeing initial focus back on

2018 highs. While the 100-DMA supports overall bullish focus remains on

139.02-141.05 where monthly highs are noted. Bears still need a close back below

Y134.81 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-WMA and 100-DMA.

Below the 100-DMA shifts focus to Y130.59-132.03.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Hints At Correction Back To $1302.5-1305.6

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 2: $1344.5 - 2018 High Jan 15 

*RES 1: $1333.1 - High Jan 18

*PRICE: $1328.2 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1307.9 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: Gold was rejected ahead of recent 2018 highs Wednesday with the

sell-off leaving it looking a little heavy following the break of $1326.6 of

that hints at a correction initially targeting $1302.5-1305.6. Momentum studies

have corrected to neutral levels but other studies correcting from O/B weigh.

Bulls now need a close above $1344.5 to reconfirm focus on 2017 and then 2016

highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]