MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7916 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: $0.8124 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 3: $0.8102 - High Sept 20

*RES 2: $0.8038 - 2018 High Jan 19

*RES 1: $0.8006 - Hourly resistance Jan 19

*PRICE: $0.7997 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: $0.7916 - High Jan 12 

*SUP 3: $0.7882 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7846 - Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was again lacking on Friday's 2018 & 4mth highs

which is a concern with daily studies looking to correct from O/S. The break of

$0.7959 lacked follow through Thursday with bears now needing a close below

$0.7916 to target a correction back to $0.7774-0.7854 where the 21 & 100-DMAs

are noted. While $0.7916 supports bulls remain focused on 2017 highs and then

$0.8295 2015 highs on a close above.

     KIWI TECHS: Below $0.7221 To Target 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7433 - Monthly High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $0.7374 - High Sept 25 

*RES 2: $0.7331 - 2018 High Jan 17 

*RES 1: $0.7324 - High Jan 19

*PRICE: $0.7281 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7244 - Low Jan 18

*SUP 2: $0.7233 - Low Jan 17

*SUP 3: $0.7221 - Low Jan 12

*SUP 4: $0.7173 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The close above $0.7243 in previous weeks ended bearish hopes and

shifted initial focus to $0.7374-0.7433 where Sept highs are located. O/B daily

studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls as layers of support

build. Bears now look for a close below $0.7221 to target a correction back to

$0.7121-73 where the 200-DMA is situated. Overall below the 55-DMA ($0.7009) is

needed to confirm focus on 2017 lows ($0.6779).

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 100-WMA Key Support, 55 & 100-DMAs Key Resistance

*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 2: NZ$1.1010 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0996 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0985 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0920 - Low Jan 22

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0895 - Low Jan 15

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0839 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0824 - Monthly Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back to the 200-DMA sees pressure back on

55 & 100-DMAs. Bulls continue to look for closes above the 55 & 100-DMA to end

bearish hopes and return overall focus to tests of 2017 highs. Daily studies

remain well placed for gains. Bears still need a close below NZ$1.0895 to gain

breathing room and below NZ$1.0730 (100-WMA) to initially target NZ$1.0588.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Focus Remains On 2017 Highs

*RES 4: Y90.30 - 2017 High Sept 21 

*RES 3: Y89.67 - High Sept 25 

*RES 2: Y89.09 - High Oct 23 

*RES 1: Y88.99 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y88.53 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y88.38 - Low Jan 19

*SUP 2: Y87.73 - Low Jan 16

*SUP 3: Y87.29 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: Y86.66 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls made up for the recent lack of topside follow through with an

aggressive rally and bullish close Wed that reconfirmed focus on Y89.09-90.30

where 2017 highs are situated. Daily studies are well placed for gains with

bulls needing a close above Y89.09 to add support to their case. Support layers

remain with bears needing a close below Y88.31 to gain breathing room and below

the 100-DMA to pressure 55 & 200-DMAs.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 100-DMA For Now

*RES 4: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20

*RES 3: A$1.5467 - Hourly support Dec 21 now resistance

*RES 2: A$1.5446 - High Jan 12

*RES 1: A$1.5426 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5347 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5249 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5148 - 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: A$1.5079 - Monthly Low Nov 9

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains supported ahead of the 100-DMA after having failed

to gain traction above the 55-DMA in recent weeks. Bulls continue to look for a

close above A$1.5446 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA, regaining the upper hand

and returning focus to tests of 2017 highs (A$1.5774). Bears now look for a

close below the 100-DMA to reconfirm focus on A$1.5034-79 where the 200-DMA is

situated.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 91.011-992 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 91.879 - High Jan 12 

*RES 3: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 2: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 1: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance

*PRICE: 90.690 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 90.113 - 2018 Low Jan 17

*SUP 2: 90.041 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 89.776 - Low Dec 26 2014

*SUP 4: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading continues with the index remaining capped ahead of

the 91.011 resistance level last week. Bulls need a close above 91.011 to ease

bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA (91.992) to hint at a correction back to

92.640-93.098 where key DMAs are clustered. Bears still need a close below

90.113 to retain overall focus on tests of the 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly low.

Correcting O/S daily studies increase correction risk.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2156 & 1.2322 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 3: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2322 2018 High Jan 17

*RES 1: $1.2295 High Jan 19

*PRICE: $1.2268 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2217 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 2: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2111 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $1.2075 Hourly resistance Jan 12a now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs was a

concern for bulls given daily studies overdue a correction from O/B levels.

Bears now need a close below $1.2156 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure

and below $1.2075 to shift focus back to $1.1854-1.1914 where key DMAs are

noted. Bulls need a close above $1.2322 to reconfirm focus on the LT bear

channel top $1.2686.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Focus Back On Y109.52-110.18 Region

*RES 4: Y112.31 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.74 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y111.48 High Jan 18

*PRICE: Y110.64 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.18 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 2: Y109.52 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 3: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 4: Y104.95 Low Now 10 2016e

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of the 200-DMA (Y111.75) last week leaves the

pair looking a little heavy and focus back on layers of support Y109.52-110.18.

Bears now look for a close below Y109.52 to add weight to the case for a test of

2017 lows. O/S daily studies remain a concern for bears. Bulls now need a close

above the 55-DMA (Y112.44) to confirm initial focus on Y112.86-113.44 with key

DMAs clustered Y111.75-112.44.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.81 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 2: Y136.54 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*PRICE: Y135.79 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.10 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 3: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: Y133.60 Hourly support Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: The recovery form dips below the 55-DMA and channel base in recent

weeks sees the pair consolidating above the 21-DMA. The Y134.81 support remains

key. Bears still need a close back below Y134.81 to ease bullish pressure and

shift focus back to the 21-WMA (133.11) and 100-DMA (Y133.14). Below the 100-DMA

shifts focus to Y130.59-132.03. While Y134.81 supports immediate focus in on the

close above Y136.52 needed to confirm focus on Y139.02-141.05.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 2018 High

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016

*RES 3: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 2: $1344.5 - 2018 High Jan 15 

*RES 1: $1338.0 - High Jan 19

*PRICE: $1331.4 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1310.9 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: Gold was rejected ahead of recent 2018 highs Wednesday with the

sell-off leaving it looking a little heavy following the break of $1326.6 that

hints at a correction initially targeting $1302.5-1305.6. Momentum studies have

corrected to neutral levels but other studies correcting from O/B weigh. Bulls

need a close above $1344.5 to reconfirm focus on 2017 and then 2016 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]