MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Close Below $0.7729 Targets Dec Low

*RES 4: $0.7976 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*RES 2: $0.7911 - High Feb 6

*RES 1: $0.7843 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: $0.7800 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7771 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7752 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7625 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 took its toll with bearish focus

currently on the $0.7729-71 region where key DMAs are clustered. The Bollinger

base ($0.7809) is the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above

$0.7911 to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to

2018 highs. Bears need a close below $0.7729 confirm breaks of DMA & WMAS & to

shift focus back to $0.7500 Dec lows.

KIWI TECHS: Finding Support Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7345 - High Feb 7 

*RES 3: $0.7325 - Hourly resistance Feb 7a 

*RES 2: $0.7305 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7255 - Low Feb 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7227 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7193 - Hourly support Feb 8

*SUP 2: $0.7174 - Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: $0.7146 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Thursday has so far lacked follow through with bulls

taking comfort in support emerging ahead of the 200-DMA. Bears currently focus

on $0.7042-0.7146 where key DMAs are noted with a close below to confirm focus

on tests of 2017 lows. Initial resistance is noted at $0.7255 with bulls needing

a close above to ease bearish pressure. Overall a close above $0.7345 is now

needed to return focus to $0.7420-88.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Rejected Aggressively Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0956 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0894 - High Feb 8

*RES 2: NZ$1.0846 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0829 - Hourly resistance Feb 8

*PRICE: NZ$1.0786 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0744 - 2018 Low Feb 7

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0728 - 100-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll this week with a sharp

sell-off back towards the 100-WMA. Follow through has been a little lacking with

bears needing a close below the 100-WMA to shift focus to NZ$1.0442-91 where the

LT rising TL is located. The rally Thursday was aggressively rejected ahead of

the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and

above NZ$1.1073 to target 2017 highs (NZ$1.1290).

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Immediate Focus On Nov Lows

*RES 4: Y86.73 - High Feb 7 

*RES 3: Y86.54 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 1: Y85.28 - Hourly support Feb 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y84.93 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y84.54 - Low Feb 8

*SUP 2: Y84.33 - Monthly Low Nov 27

*SUP 3: Y83.72 - Low June 22

*SUP 4: Y83.62 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Losses continue to define this week with immediate bearish focus on

Y84.33 Nov lows. Bears look for a close below this level to shift focus to

Y83.59-72 where the 100-WMA and daily bear channel base are located. Layers of

resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls now need a close above Y86.11 to

ease bearish pressure and above Y87.50 to shift focus back to Y88.50-89.09 where

the bear channel top is situated.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5630

*RES 4: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 3: A$1.5814 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.5796 - 2018 High Feb 6

*RES 1: A$1.5747 - High Feb 7

*PRICE: A$1.5724 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5630 - Low Feb 5 

*SUP 2: A$1.5586 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: A$1.5510 - Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 4: A$1.5469 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 & 2yr highs remains less

than ideal for bulls who look for a close above to reconfirm initial focus on

A$1.5968. Layers of support remain in place with bears still needing a close

below A$1.5630 to ease bullish pressure and below A$1.5586 to shift focus back

to A1.5437-69 where 21 & 55-DMAs are situated. Daily studies lingering at O/B

levels remains a concern for bulls also.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 21-DMA Now Supporting

*RES 4: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.567 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: 90.215 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.954 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.720 - Hourly resistance Feb 6 now support

*SUP 3: 89.373 - Low Feb 6

*SUP 4: 88.925 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows failed to produce the close below

needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel base

(87.401). The close above 90.113 eased bearish pressure and shifted focus to

91.011-751. Daily studies are well placed for gains. Bears need a close below

the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below 89.373 to return initial focus to

88.438 2018 lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Shifts To $1.2092-1.2156

*RES 4: $1.2406 High Feb 7

*RES 3: $1.2363 Hourly support Feb 7 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2314 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2295 High Feb 8

*PRICE: $1.2266 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2210 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 2: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2046 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-DMA resulted in a close below and confirms

bearish focus on $1.2092-1.2156. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg

lower. Layers of resistance accumulating also adds weight to the bearish case.

Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $1.2433

to return focus to 2018 highs and then the weekly bear channel top ($1.2670).

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Remains Capped On Approach To 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.47 High Feb 2 

*RES 2: Y109.91 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.78 High Feb 8

*PRICE: Y108.86 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.40 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 2: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 3: Y108.12 Low Sept 11 

*SUP 4: Y107.80 Weekly Triangle base

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains capped ahead of the 21-DMA which retains immediate

focus on the break of Y108.12 needed to confirm initial focus on Y107.31-80

where the rising weekly triangle base and 2017 lows are situated. Daily studies

correcting from O/S levels are less than ideal. Bulls still need a close above

the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above Y110.47 to initially target

Y111.22-112.49 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Lacking Follow Through Below Y133.04

*RES 4: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance

*RES 3: Y135.09 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 1: Y133.81 Low Feb 7 now resistance

*PRICE: Y133.51 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.93 2018 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 2: Y132.03 Monthly Low Dec 13 

*SUP 3: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y130.73 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 resulted in dips below the 21-WMA

(Y133.73) and 100-DMA (Y133.61) but follow through below Y133.04 has been

lacking courtesy of the Bollinger base (Y133.69). Bulls now need a close above

Y135.09 to ease bearish pressure and above Y135.95 to shift focus back to 2018

highs (Y137.50). While Y135.11 caps immediate focus shifts to Y130.59-132.03

where monthly lows and 200-DMA are noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 3: $1339.0 - Hourly support Feb 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1332.6 - High Feb 7 

*RES 1: $1325.6 - Hourly resistance Feb 7

*PRICE: $1318.9 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1302.0 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1293.0 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs continues and has seen a dip

back towards $1302.0-1305.9 where the 55-DMA is located only to bounce

aggressively which is less than ideal for bears. In saying that, bulls still

need a close above $1332.6 to ease bearish pressure and above $1374.9 to confirm

focus on $1391.8-1433.3. Bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA to add

weight the case for a test of the 200-DMA ($1279.9).

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Flirting With 55-DMA 

*RES 4: $64.47 - Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: $64.20 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $62.78 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: $62.09 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: $61.09 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $60.59 - Low Feb 8 

*SUP 2: $58.82 - High Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $57.42 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $56.92 - Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs are a concern for bulls

with the break lower Wednesday seeing immediate focus on the 55-DMA ($60.69).

Bears look for a close below $60.59 to shift focus to the $55.30-58.82 region

where the 100-DMA is noted. Layers of resistance left in the wake are

accumulating and adding to bearish confidence. Bulls need a close above $62.78

to ease bearish pressure and above $64.47 to target 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]